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Blended Identification in Structural VARs

Author

Listed:
  • Carriero, Andrea
  • Marcellino, Massimiliano
  • Tornese, Tommaso

Abstract

We propose a blended approach which combines identification via heteroskedasticity with the widely used methods of sign restrictions, narrative restrictions, and external instruments. Since heteroskedasticity in the reduced form can be exploited to point identify a set of orthogonal shocks, its use results in a sharp reduction of the potentially large identified sets stemming from the typical approaches. Conversely, the identifying information in the form of sign and narrative restrictions or external instruments can prove necessary when the conditions for point identification through heteroskedasticity are not met and offers a natural solution to the labeling problem inherent in purely statistical identification strategies. As a result, we argue that blending these methods together resolves their respective key issues and leverages their advantages, which allows to sharpen identification at virtually no cost. We illustrate the blending approach using several examples taken from recent and influential literature. Specifically, we consider labour market shocks, oil market shocks, monetary and fiscal policy shocks, and find that their effects can be rather different from what previously obtained with simpler identification strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Tornese, Tommaso, 2022. "Blended Identification in Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 17640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17640
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Robin Braun, 2023. "The importance of supply and demand for oil prices: Evidence from non‐Gaussianity," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1163-1198, November.
    3. Christiane Baumeister, 2025. "Comment on "Local Projections or VARs? A Primer for Macroeconomists"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bobeica, Elena & Holton, Sarah & Huber, Florian & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2025. "Beware of large shocks! A non-parametric structural inflation model," Working Paper Series 3052, European Central Bank.
    5. Jan Pruser, 2024. "A large non-Gaussian structural VAR with application to Monetary Policy," Papers 2412.17598, arXiv.org.
    6. Dimitris Korobilis, 2025. "Exploring Monetary Policy Shocks with Large-Scale Bayesian VARs," Working Papers No 05/2025, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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