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International stock market comovement in time and scale outlined with a thick pen

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  • Jach, Agnieszka

Abstract

We quantify time-varying, bivariate and multivariate comovement between international stock market returns, across various time scales, based on a novel approach of Fryzlewicz and Oh (2011) called thick pen transform. With help of this nonparametric and simple tool, we study 11 countries and examine their comovement with respect to (non-dyadic) time scales/frequencies, development and region. We also consider all possible 2036 different combinations of two or more of these countries. In the two-country case, we make comparisons with cross-correlations, either rolling-window or based on the multi-period returns. We find that in the bivariate set-up with the USA, the BRIC countries, except for Brazil (especially over small time scales), offer diversification benefits, while in the multivariate one, clustering with respect to America or Europe (but not Asia) leads to homogeneous groups. Hence development and region cannot always be considered as ultimate clustering factors. Leave-one-out cross-validation shows a nuanced interplay of time scales, development and region as grouping factors for Brazil, Japan, Hong Kong and Russia. Additionally, we provide an example of a time-scale-dependent portfolio strategy.

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  • Jach, Agnieszka, 2017. "International stock market comovement in time and scale outlined with a thick pen," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 115-129.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:43:y:2017:i:c:p:115-129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2017.06.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fryzlewicz, Piotr & Oh, H. S., 2011. "Thick pen transformation for time series," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37663, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Lehkonen, Heikki & Heimonen, Kari, 2014. "Timescale-dependent stock market comovement: BRICs vs. developed markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 90-103.
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    12. Mara Madaleno & Carlos Pinho, 2012. "International stock market indices comovements: a new look," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 89-102, January.
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    14. Gong, Qiang & Liu, Ming & Liu, Qianqiu, 2015. "Momentum is really short-term momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 169-182.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Infante, Juan & Martín-Valmayor, Miguel Angel, 2023. "Persistence and long run co-movements across stock market prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 347-357.
    3. Yang, Jian & Yu, Ziliang & Ma, Jun, 2019. "China's financial network with international spillovers: A first look," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Sleem, Mohamed A.E., 2023. "Short- and long-run determinants of the price behavior of US clean energy stocks: A dynamic ARDL simulations approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Julian Di Giovanni & Galina Hale, 2022. "Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3373-3421, December.
    6. Wadud, Sania & Gronwald, Marc & Durand, Robert B. & Lee, Seungho, 2023. "Co-movement between commodity and equity markets revisited—An application of the Thick Pen method," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Nicolás Magner Pulgar & Esteban José Antonio Terán Sánchez & Vicente Alfonso Guzmán Muñoz, 2022. "Stock Market Synchronization and Stock Volatility: The Case of an Emerging Market," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(3), pages 1-22, Julio - S.
    8. Su, Zhi & Liu, Peng & Fang, Tong, 2022. "Uncertainty matters in US financial information spillovers: Evidence from a directed acyclic graph approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 229-242.
    9. Marc Gronwald & Xin Jin, 2023. "Macroeconomics with a Thick Pen," CESifo Working Paper Series 10430, CESifo.
    10. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2019. "The time-frequency co-movement of Asian effective exchange rates: A wavelet approach with daily data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 131-148.
    11. Boubaker, Heni & Larbi, Ons Ben, 2022. "Dynamic dependence and hedging strategies in BRICS stock markets with oil during crises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 263-279.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pen thickness; Frequency; Volume; Thick pen measure of association; Cross-spectrum;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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