IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v130y2024ics0140988324000239.html

Measuring world oil market integration with a Thick Pen

Author

Listed:
  • Gronwald, Marc
  • Jin, Xin

Abstract

This paper measures integration of the world crude oil market using two measures based on the so-called Thick Pen Transform (TPT): the Thick Pen Measure of Association (TPMA) as well as Multi-Thickness Thick Pen Measure of Association (MTTPMA). These are nonparametric measures which are visually interpretable and allow one to quantify how integrated crude oil markets are. They can capture time-varying co-movement of different regional crude prices as well as co-movement at different time scales; i.e. short-term and long-term features of the price series. A particular strength in this application is the ability to detect instabilities in oil price relationships. The results are in line with the notion of the world oil market as one great pool; however the application vividly illustrates that the relationship between prices of crude types such as WTI Midlands and West Texas Sour is stronger than that between, e.g., Bonny Light and Dubai.

Suggested Citation

  • Gronwald, Marc & Jin, Xin, 2024. "Measuring world oil market integration with a Thick Pen," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:130:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324000239
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107315
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324000239
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107315?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. repec:aen:journl:ej34-3-06 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:aen:journl:ej40-si2-mizrach is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Agnieszka Jach, 2021. "A General Comovement Measure for Time Series," Springer Books, in: Marco Corazza & Manfred Gilli & Cira Perna & Claudio Pizzi & Marilena Sibillo (ed.), Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, pages 279-284, Springer.
    5. L. R. Klein & R. F. Kosobud, 1961. "Some Econometrics of Growth: Great Ratios of Economics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(2), pages 173-198.
    6. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Long†Run Covariability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 775-804, May.
    7. Marc Gronwald & Xin Jin, 2023. "Macroeconomics with a Thick Pen," CESifo Working Paper Series 10430, CESifo.
    8. Wadud, Sania & Gronwald, Marc & Durand, Robert B. & Lee, Seungho, 2023. "Co-movement between commodity and equity markets revisited—An application of the Thick Pen method," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Lindman, Sebastian & Tuvhag, Tom & Jayasekera, Ranadeva & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Troster, Victor, 2020. "Market Impact on financial market integration: Cross-quantilogram analysis of the global impact of the euro," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-73.
    10. P. Fryzlewicz & H.‐S. Oh, 2011. "Thick pen transformation for time series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(4), pages 499-529, September.
    11. Jozef Baruník & Tobias Kley, 2019. "Quantile coherency: A general measure for dependence between cyclical economic variables," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 131-152.
    12. repec:aen:journl:1984v05-03-a01 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:aen:journl:ej42-2-plante is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May.
    15. Bravo Caro, José Manuel & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús & Vides, José Carlos, 2020. "A new way of measuring the WTI – Brent spread. Globalization, shock persistence and common trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Evolution of the world crude oil market integration: A graph theory analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 90-100.
    17. Jach, Agnieszka, 2017. "International stock market comovement in time and scale outlined with a thick pen," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 115-129.
    18. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2020. "Long-run purchasing power parity redux," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gurdip Bakshi & Xiaohui Gao & Zhaowei Zhang, 2024. "What Insights Do Short-Maturity (7DTE) Return Predictive Regressions Offer about Risk Preferences in the Oil Market?," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Marc Gronwald & Sania Wadud & Kingsley Dogah, 2024. "Informational Efficiency of World Oil Markets: One Great Pool, but with Varying Depth," CESifo Working Paper Series 11017, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marc Gronwald & Xin Jin, 2023. "Macroeconomics with a Thick Pen," CESifo Working Paper Series 10430, CESifo.
    2. Wadud, Sania & Gronwald, Marc & Durand, Robert B. & Lee, Seungho, 2023. "Co-movement between commodity and equity markets revisited—An application of the Thick Pen method," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Hwang, Sun Ho & Kim, Yun Jung, 2021. "International output synchronization at different frequencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Zhu, Huiming & Zeng, Tian & Wang, Xinghui & Xia, Xiling, 2025. "Frequency domain cross-quantile coherency and connectedness network of exchange rates: Evidence from ASEAN+3 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    5. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Lahiani, Amine & Dash, Ashutosh & Ray, Sougata, 2026. "Stock market vulnerability to US monetary policy: Evidenced from quantile coherency analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Salah Uddin, Gazi & Lucey, Brian & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Stenvall, David, 2024. "Quantile coherency across bonds, commodities, currencies, and equities," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    7. Ong, Kian, 2024. "Adjusting toward long-run purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2022. "Financial cycles across G7 economies: A view from wavelet analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    9. Mensi, Walid & Lee, Yun-Jung & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Quantile connectedness among gold, gold mining, silver, oil and energy sector uncertainty indexes," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Lubos Hanus & Lukas Vacha, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union," Working Papers IES 2015/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2015.
    11. Michis Antonis A, 2009. "Regression Analysis of Marketing Time Series: A Wavelet Approach with Some Frequency Domain Insights," Review of Marketing Science, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-43, July.
    12. Jozef Baruník & Tobias Kley, 2019. "Quantile coherency: A general measure for dependence between cyclical economic variables," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 131-152.
    13. Kim Hiang Liow & Xiaoxia Zhou & Qiang Li & Yuting Huang, 2019. "Comovement of Greater China Real Estate Markets: Some Time Scale Evidence," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 473-512, July.
    14. Karim, Sitara & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Lucey, Brian M., 2022. "Do ethics outpace sins?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    15. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    16. Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro & Quaresima, Greta & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2021. "Decoupling and recoupling in the crude oil price benchmarks: An investigation of similarity patterns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    17. repec:ptu:bdpart:b201208 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2008. "The Baltic states and Europe: common factors of economic activity," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 75-96, October.
    19. Junlian Gong & Jun Nagayasu, 2025. "What Makes the Oil Pricing Center? The Impact of Futures Markets and Production," TUPD Discussion Papers 71, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    20. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès & Khaled Guesmi, 2015. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis Versus Wavelet Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 575-611, December.
    21. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:130:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324000239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.