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The Globalization Risk Premium

Author

Listed:
  • Sauvagnat, Julien
  • Barrot, Jean-Noël
  • Loualiche, Erik

Abstract

We investigate how globalization is reflected in asset prices. We use shipping costs to measure firms’ exposure to globalization. Firms in low shipping cost industries carry a 8 percent risk premium, suggesting that their cash-flows covary negatively with investors’ marginal utility. We find that the premium emanates from the risk of displacement of least efficient firms triggered by import competition. These findings suggest that foreign productivity shocks are associated with times when consumption is dear for investors. We discuss conditions under which a standard model of trade with asset prices can rationalize this puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Sauvagnat, Julien & Barrot, Jean-Noël & Loualiche, Erik, 2016. "The Globalization Risk Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 11733, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11733
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    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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