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Endogenous Borrowing Constraints and Stagnation in Latin America

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Abstract

The Latin American debt crisis of the 1980's had a major and long lasting effect on per-capita consumption: its level in 2005 was not that different from that in 1980. This paper studies the long stagnation in per-capita consumption that followed the crisis, and its relationship with recessions and sovereign risk, using a small open economy real business cycle model with complete markets, endogenous borrowing limits (limited commitment), endogenous capital accumulation, and domestic productivity and international interest rate shocks. I find that the model does an excellent job at explaining the observed behavior of per-capita consumption and that both the productivity and international interest rate shocks are important. Furthermore, I show that the participation constraint in this kind of representative agent model can bind not only in good times but also in prolonged bad times.

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  • Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2013. "Endogenous Borrowing Constraints and Stagnation in Latin America," Working Papers 2014-37, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2014-037
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2014.037
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    1. Lee E. Ohanian & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Mark L. J. Wright, 2018. "Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3541-3582, December.
    2. Lee Ohanian & Diana Van Patten & Mark Wright & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2019. "Bretton Woods and the Reconstruction of Europe," 2019 Meeting Papers 665, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Aguiar, Mark & Amador, Manuel, 2014. "Sovereign Debt," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 647-687, Elsevier.
    4. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2013. "Sovereign Debt: A Review," NBER Working Papers 19388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Liu, Yan & Marimon, Ramon & Wicht, Adrien, 2023. "Making sovereign debt safe with a financial stability fund," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Giovanni Callegari & Ramon Marimon & Adrien Wicht & Luca Zavalloni, 2023. "On a Lender of Last Resort with a Central Bank and a Stability Fund," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 50, pages 106-130, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Debt Crisis; Latin America; Limited Commitment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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