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Capital Accumulation and Dynamic Gains from Trade

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We compute welfare gains from trade in a dynamic, multicountry model with capital accumulation. We examine transition paths for 93 countries following a permanent, uniform, unanticipated trade liberalization. Both the relative price of investment and the investment rate respond to changes in trade frictions. Relative to a static model, the dynamic welfare gains in a model with balanced trade are three times as large. The gains including transition are 60 percent of those computed by comparing only steady states. Trade imbalances have negligible effects on the cross-country distribution of dynamic gains. However, relative to the balanced-trade model, small, less-developed countries accrue the gains faster in a model with trade imbalances by running trade deficits in the short run but have lower consumption in the long-run. In both models, most of the dynamic gains are driven by capital accumulation.

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File URL: https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2017/2017-005.pdf
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File URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.20955/wp.2017.005
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2017-5.

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Length: 64 pages
Date of creation: 27 Feb 2017
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2017-005
DOI: 10.20955/wp.2017.005
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  1. James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2015. "Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 5446, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Finicelli, Andrea & Pagano, Patrizio & Sbracia, Massimo, 2013. "Ricardian selection," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 96-109.
  3. Michael Sposi & B Ravikumar & Piyusha Mutreja, 2014. "Capital goods trade and economic development," 2014 Meeting Papers 1374, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Wyatt J. Brooks & Pau S. Pujolas, 2016. "Captial Accumulation and the Welfare Gains from Trade," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016-03, McMaster University, revised Jul 2017.
  5. George Alessandria & Horag Choi & Kim Ruhl, 2014. "Trade Adjustment Dynamics and the Welfare Gains from Trade," NBER Working Papers 20663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, 2017. "The Role of Trade Costs in the Surge of Trade Imbalances," 2017 Meeting Papers 212, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl & Joe Steinberg, 2013. "Global imbalances and structural change in the United States," Staff Report 489, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2015. "The Impact of Trade on Labor Market Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 21149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2015. "The Geography of Development: Evaluating Migration Restrictions and Coastal Flooding," NBER Working Papers 21087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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