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Trade and investment in the global economy: A multi-country dynamic analysis

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  • Anderson, James E.
  • Larch, Mario
  • Yotov, Yoto V.

Abstract

We develop a multi-country trade model with domestic investment in physical capital and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the form of non-rival technology capital. Gravity sub-systems for FDI and trade nest with accumulation/decumulation of physical and technology capital in transition to the steady state. The key innovation of our work is the modeling and quantification of the general equilibrium links between trade and investment in the global economy. The importance of FDI is quantified in our calibrated model by comparing aggregate data for 89 countries in 2011 to a counterfactual world without outward and inward FDI from and to low- and lower-middle-income countries. World welfare loss from FDI removal in the poorer countries in the world is around 6%, while world trade falls around 7%, unevenly distributed among winners and losers. Net exports of FDI substitute for export trade across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, James E. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Trade and investment in the global economy: A multi-country dynamic analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:120:y:2019:i:c:s0014292119301631
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.103311
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    2. Li, Wei & Nie, Guangyu & Wang, Zi, 2020. "Trade, FDI, and Global Imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    3. I. P. Gurova, 2020. "Offshore Investment in the Russian Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 449-456, July.
    4. Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Francisco Requena, 2021. "Asylum Migration, Borders, and Terrorism in a Structural Gravity Model," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 146-158.
    5. Julia Bahlmann & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2021. "Environmental Policy Stringency and Foreign Direct Investment: New Insights from a Gravity Model Approach," EIIW Discussion paper disbei294, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    6. Kox, Henk L.M. & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo, 2020. "How Trade and Investment Agreements Affect Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment: Results from a Structural Gravity Model," MPRA Paper 102494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mattia Di Ubaldo & Michael Gasiorek, 2020. "Non-trade provisions in trade agreements and FDI," Working Paper Series 2120, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    8. Nguyen, Anh T.N. & Haug, Alfred A. & Owen, P. Dorian & Genç, Murat, 2020. "What drives bilateral foreign direct investment among Asian economies?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 125-141.
    9. Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2021. "Belt and road: The China dream?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Chong, Alberto & Srebot, Carla, 2020. "Investment confidence and regional trade agreements with the United States," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 92-100.
    11. Anna Golovko & Hasan Sahin, 2021. "Analysis of international trade integration of Eurasian countries: gravity model approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 519-548, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign direct investment; Trade; Trade liberalization; Capital accumulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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