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Trade and Investment in the Global Economy

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  • James E. Anderson
  • Mario Larch
  • Yoto V. Yotov

Abstract

We develop a dynamic multi-country trade model with foreign direct investment (FDI) in the form of non-rival technology capital. The model nests structural gravity sub-systems for FDI and trade, with accumulation/decumulation of phyisical and technology capital in transition to the steady state. The empirical importance of the FDI channel is demonstrated comparing actual aggregate cross-section data for 89 countries in 2011 to a hypothetical world without FDI. The gains from FDI amount to 9\% of world's welfare and to 11% of world's trade, unevenly distributed among winners and losers. Net exports of FDI substitute for export trade in the results.

Suggested Citation

  • James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2017. "Trade and Investment in the Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 23757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23757
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anderson, James & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2015. "Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2015-2, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    2. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078, February.
    3. Ellen R. McGrattan & Andrea Waddle, 2020. "The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 76-103, January.
    4. María Pía Olivero & Yoto V. Yotov, 2012. "Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February.
    5. Seghezza, Elena & Baldwin, Richard E., 2008. "Testing for Trade-Induced Investment-Led Growth," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 61(2-3), pages 507-537.
    6. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
    7. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Wei & Nie, Guangyu & Wang, Zi, 2020. "Trade, FDI, and Global Imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Kox, Henk L.M. & Rojas Romasgosa, Hugo, 2019. "Gravity estimations with FDI bilateral data: Potential FDI effects of deep preferential trade agreements," MPRA Paper 96318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Henk L. M. Kox & Hugo Rojas‐Romagosa, 2020. "How trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment: Results from a structural gravity model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), pages 3203-3242, December.
    4. Barseghyan, Gayane, 2019. "Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. Sébastien Miroudot & Davide Rigo, 2019. "Preferential Trade Agreements and Multinational Production," RSCAS Working Papers 2019/14, European University Institute.
    6. Anderson, James E. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Trade and investment in the global economy: A multi-country dynamic analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Fabian J. Baier, 2020. "Foreign Direct Investment and Tax: OECD Gravity Modelling in a World with International Financial Institutions," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 6(1), pages 45-72, October.
    8. Zongo, Amara, 2020. "The Impact of Restrictive Measures on Bilateral FDI in OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 101929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Aichele, Rahel & Heiland, Inga, 2018. "Where is the value added? Trade liberalization and production networks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 130-144.
    10. Fabian J. Baier, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment and Tax: OECD Gravity Modelling in a World with International Financial Institutions," EIIW Discussion paper disbei261, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    11. Naoto JINJI & Yukiko SAWADA & Xingyuan ZHANG & Shoji HARUNA, "undated". "Gravity for Cross-border Licensing and the Impact of Deep Trade Agreements: Theory and Evidence," Discussion papers e-20-008, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    12. Mattia Di Ubaldo & Michael Gasiorek, 2020. "Non-trade provisions in trade agreements and FDI," Working Paper Series 2120, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    13. Mirkina, Irina, 2018. "FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 198-225.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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