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The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production

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Listed:
  • Ellen R. McGrattan
  • Andrea Waddle

Abstract

Using simulations from a multicountry neoclassical growth model, we analyze several post-Brexit scenarios. First, the United Kingdom unilaterally imposes tighter restrictions on FDI and trade from other EU nations. Second, the European Union retaliates and imposes the same restrictions on the United Kingdom. Finally, the United Kingdom reduces restrictions on other nations during the post-Brexit transition. Model predictions depend crucially on the policy response of multinationals' investment in technology capital, accumulated know-how from investments in R&D, brands, and organizations used simultaneously in their domestic and foreign operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellen R. McGrattan & Andrea Waddle, 2020. "The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 76-103, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:76-103
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170399
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    2. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method," CEPR Discussion Papers 9968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Thomas J. Holmes & Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2015. "Quid Pro Quo: Technology Capital Transfers for Market Access in China," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 1154-1193.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Steinberg, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Impact of NAFTA Termination," 2018 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2017. "Trade and Investment in the Global Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 6625, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Tarek Alexander Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    5. Benjamin Born & Gernot Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2017. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 6780, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Broadbent, Ben & Di Pace, Federico & Drechsel, Thomas & Harrison, Richard & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2019. "The Brexit vote, productivity growth and macroeconomic adjustments in the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 51, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    7. Paul J. J. Welfens & Fabian J. Baier, 2018. "BREXIT and Foreign Direct Investment: Key Issues and New Empirical Findings," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
    8. Anderson, James E. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2017. "Trade and Investment in the Global Economy," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2017-9, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    9. Campos, Nauro F., 2019. "B for Brexit: A Survey of the Economics Academic Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12134, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.
    11. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedlacek, 2017. "The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote," Discussion Papers 1738, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    12. repec:cpr:ceprdp:14253 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Pitsoulis, Athanassios & Schwuchow, Soeren, 2018. "Though this be madness: A game-theoretic perspective on the Brexit negotiations," Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181635, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Tarek Alexander Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-332, Boston University - Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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