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The Imact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Waddle

    (University of Richmond)

  • Ellen McGrattan

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the impact of increasing costs on foreign producers following a withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (popularly known as Brexit). Our predictions are based on simulations of a multicountry neoclassical growth model that includes multinational firms investing in research and development (R&D), brands, and other intangible capital that is used nonrivalrously by their subsidiaries at home and abroad. We analyze several post-Brexit scenarios. First, we assume that the United Kingdom unilaterally imposes tighter restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) from other E.U. nations. With less E.U. technology deployed in the United Kingdom, U.K. firms increase investment in their own R&D and other intangibles, which is costly, and welfare for U.K. citizens is lower. If the European Union remains open, its citizens enjoy a modest gain from the increased U.K. investment since it can be costlessly deployed in subsidiaries throughout Europe. If instead we assume that the European Union imposes the same restrictions on U.K. FDI, then E.U. firms invest more in their own R&D, benefiting the United Kingdom. With costs higher on both U.K. and E.U. FDI, we predict a significant fall in foreign investment and production by U.K. firms. The United Kingdom increases international lending, which finances the production of others both domestically and abroad, and inward FDI rises. U.K. consumption falls and leisure rises, implying a negligible impact on welfare. In the European Union, declines in investment and production are modest, but the welfare of E.U. citizens is significantly lower. Finally, if, during the transition, the United Kingdom reduces current restrictions on other major foreign investors, such as the United States and Japan, U.K. inward FDI and welfare both rise significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Waddle & Ellen McGrattan, 2017. "The Imact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production," 2017 Meeting Papers 710, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:710
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:inecon:v:117:y:2019:i:c:p:175-195 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Thomas J. Holmes & Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2015. "Quid Pro Quo: Technology Capital Transfers for Market Access in China," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 1154-1193.
    3. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method," IZA Discussion Papers 8162, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Steinberg, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Impact of NAFTA Termination," 2018 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Anderson, James E. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2017. "Trade and Investment in the Global Economy," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2017-9, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    3. Campos, Nauro F., 2019. "B for Brexit: A Survey of the Economics Academic Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12134, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedlacek, 2017. "The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote," Discussion Papers 1738, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. repec:eee:inecon:v:117:y:2019:i:c:p:175-195 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pitsoulis, Athanassios & Schwuchow, Soeren, 2018. "Though this be madness: A game-theoretic perspective on the Brexit negotiations," Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181635, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. repec:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:46-:d:143042 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    9. Benjamin Born & Gernot Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2017. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 6780, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

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