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How trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment: Results from a structural gravity model

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  • Henk L. M. Kox
  • Hugo Rojas‐Romagosa

Abstract

We employ a structural gravity approach to analyse the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and other policies on bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). We use the UNCTAD global database on bilateral FDI stocks and flows. To control for the heterogeneous nature of PTAs, we employ two different indicators of PTA depth. We find that on average signing a PTA increases bilateral FDI stocks by around 30%. Nevertheless, we also find that ‘deeper’ or comprehensive PTAs (e.g., including provisions on investment, public procurement and intellectual property rights provisions) do not have a significantly different impact than signing regular PTAs. Belonging to the EU single market, on the other hand, has a strong impact and increases bilateral FDI by around 135%, and signing a BIT has an effect that is comparable to signing a PTA.

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  • Henk L. M. Kox & Hugo Rojas‐Romagosa, 2020. "How trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment: Results from a structural gravity model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:43:y:2020:i:12:n:twec13002
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13002
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    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Miroudot & Davide Rigo, 2022. "Multinational production and investment provisions in preferential trade agreements [Intra-industry foreign direct investment]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1275-1308.
    2. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Testing the knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment: New evidence," MPRA Paper 114177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    4. Di Ubaldo, Mattia & Gasiorek, Michael, 2022. "Non-trade provisions in trade agreements and FDI," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
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    6. Bradley, Sebastien & Carril-Caccia, Federico & Yotov, Yoto, 2023. "Reassessing the Effects of Corporate Income Taxes on Mergers and Acquisitions Using Empirical Advances in the Gravity Literature," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2023-8, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    7. Baccini,Leonardo & Fiorini,Matteo & Hoekman,Bernard M. & Altomonte,Carlo & Colantone,Italo, 2021. "Global Value Chains and Deep Integration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9598, The World Bank.
    8. Kox, Henk L.M., 2023. "Testing an extended knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment," MPRA Paper 117266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Deep Trade Agreements and FDI in Partial and General Equilibrium: A Structural Estimation Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 9985, CESifo.
    10. Alessandro Ferrari & Matteo Fiorini & Joseph Francois, Bernard Hoekman, Lisa Maria Lechner, Miriam Manchin, Filippo Santi, 2021. "EU Trade Agreements and Non-Trade Policy Objectives," RSCAS Working Papers 2021/48, European University Institute.
    11. Ryan, Michael & Tanaka, Ayumu, 2023. "Affiliate Ownership Structure Responses to FDI Liberalization Policies," SocArXiv cdajf, Center for Open Science.
    12. Wen Yue & Qingxia Lin & Siyu Xu, 2023. "Investment effect of regional trade agreements: an analysis from the perspective of heterogeneous agreement provisions," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2022. "Does terrorism affect greenfield investment? A structural gravity approach," ThE Papers 22/06, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    14. Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Do, Manh Hung, 2021. "Impact of economic sanctions and counter-sanctions on the Russian Federation’s trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 267-278.
    15. Zhenkuo Ding & Man Hu & Sheng Huang, 2023. "Diplomatic Relations and Firm Internationalization Speed: The Moderating Roles of Trade Openness and Firm Ownership," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 911-941, December.
    16. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Linking the knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment with national knowledge systems," EconStor Preprints 266495, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    17. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "A micro-macro model of foreign direct investment: knowledge-based gravity forces, self-selection and third-country effects," MPRA Paper 115542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Risti Permani & Xing Xu, 2022. "The nexus between natural disasters, supply chains and trade—Revisiting the role of preferential trade agreements in disaster risk reduction," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3002-3030, October.
    19. Elena Kotyrlo & Hryhorii M. Kalachyhin, 2023. "The effects of India's bilateral investment treaties termination on foreign direct investment inflows," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 1007-1033, October.
    20. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Explaining foreign direct investment patterns: a testable micro-macro gravity model for FDI," MPRA Paper 115273, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "A fresh assessment of the euro effect on outward US FDI," Working Papers 2209, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    22. Leonardo Baccini & Arianna Bondi & Matteo Fiorini, 2023. "Global Value Chains and the Design of Trade Agreements," RSCAS Working Papers 2013_56, European University Institute.
    23. Bekkers, Eddy & Lakatos, Csilla & So, Yu Roger & Yuan, Wen Jin & Traverso, Fabio, 2021. "A Global Foreign Direct Investment Stocks Database," Conference papers 333293, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    24. Stender, Frederik & Vogel, Tim, 2023. "What role for aid for trade in (deep) PTA relations? Empirical evidence from gravity model estimations," IDOS Discussion Papers 13/2023, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    25. Radovan Kastratović & Predrag Bjelić, 2023. "The Effectiveness Of Bilateral Investment Treaties In Attracting Foreign Direct Investment: The Case Of Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 68(237), pages 37-68, April – J.

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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