IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/drxlwp/2017_009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade and Investment in the Global Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Anderson, James E.

    (Boston College)

  • Larch, Mario

    (University of Bayreuth)

  • Yotov, Yoto

    (Drexel University School of Economics)

Abstract

We develop a dynamic multi-country trade model with foreign direct investment (FDI) in the form of non-rival technology capital. The model nests structural gravity sub-systems for FDI and trade, with accumulation/decumulation of physical and technology capital in transition to the steady state. The empirical importance of the FDI channel is demonstrated comparing actual aggregate cross-section data for 89 countries in 2011 to a hypothetical world without FDI. The gains from FDI amount to 9% of world's welfare and to 11% of world's trade, unevenly distributed among winners and losers. Net exports of FDI substitute for export trade in the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, James E. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2017. "Trade and Investment in the Global Economy," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2017-9, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2017_009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxRDnd8cEKndUFMyb1ltVmJXc1E/view?usp=share_link&resourcekey=0-_YWotH2nNLS9jxBrVZmeZA
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, James & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2015. "Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2015-2, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    3. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078, December.
    4. Ellen R. McGrattan & Andrea Waddle, 2020. "The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 76-103, January.
    5. Thomas Sampson, 2016. "Dynamic Selection: An Idea Flows Theory of Entry, Trade, and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(1), pages 315-380.
    6. María Pía Olivero & Yoto V. Yotov, 2012. "Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February.
    7. Yoto Yotov & Mario Larch & James Anderson, 2015. "Growth and Trade: A Structural Estimation Framework," 2015 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    9. Seghezza, Elena & Baldwin, Richard E., 2008. "Testing for Trade-Induced Investment-Led Growth," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 61(2-3), pages 507-537.
    10. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    11. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    12. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
    13. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    14. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    15. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    16. James R. Markusen, 1997. "Trade versus Investment Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 6231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Wei & Nie, Guangyu & Wang, Zi, 2020. "Trade, FDI, and Global Imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Jiazhen Ren & Apurbo Sarkar & Hong Li & Xiaojing Li, 2022. "Does the Host Country’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Restrictiveness Inhibit the Export Sophistication of the Home Country? Evidence from China’s Manufacturing Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    3. Kox, Henk L.M. & Rojas Romasgosa, Hugo, 2019. "Gravity estimations with FDI bilateral data: Potential FDI effects of deep preferential trade agreements," MPRA Paper 96318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Julia Bahlmann & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2021. "Environmental Policy Stringency and Foreign Direct Investment: New Insights from a Gravity Model Approach," EIIW Discussion paper disbei294, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    5. Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Francisco Requena, 2021. "Asylum Migration, Borders, and Terrorism in a Structural Gravity Model," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 146-158.
    6. Di Ubaldo, Mattia & Gasiorek, Michael, 2022. "Non-trade provisions in trade agreements and FDI," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Henk L. M. Kox & Hugo Rojas‐Romagosa, 2020. "How trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment: Results from a structural gravity model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), December.
    8. Barseghyan, Gayane, 2019. "Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Mariam Camarero & Silviano Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Which are the long-run determinants of US outward FDI? Evidence using large long-memory panels," Working Papers 2210, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    10. Sébastien Miroudot & Davide Rigo, 2019. "Preferential Trade Agreements and Multinational Production," RSCAS Working Papers 2019/14, European University Institute.
    11. Anderson, James E. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Trade and investment in the global economy: A multi-country dynamic analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    12. Fabian J. Baier, 2020. "Foreign Direct Investment and Tax: OECD Gravity Modelling in a World with International Financial Institutions," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 6(1), pages 45-72, October.
    13. Zongo, Amara, 2020. "The Impact of Restrictive Measures on Bilateral FDI in OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 101929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Aichele, Rahel & Heiland, Inga, 2018. "Where is the value added? Trade liberalization and production networks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 130-144.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fabian J. Baier, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment and Tax: OECD Gravity Modelling in a World with International Financial Institutions," EIIW Discussion paper disbei261, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    17. Amara Zongo, 2022. "The effects of restrictive measures on cross‐border investment: Evidence from OECD and emerging countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2428-2477, August.
    18. Naoto JINJI & Yukiko SAWADA & Xingyuan ZHANG & Shoji HARUNA, 2021. "Gravity for Cross-border Licensing and the Impact of Deep Trade Agreements: Theory and Evidence," Discussion papers e-20-008, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    19. Nashwan M. A. Saif & Jianping Ruan & Bojan Obrenovic, 2021. "Sustaining Trade during COVID-19 Pandemic: Establishing a Conceptual Model Including COVID-19 Impact," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    20. Mirkina, Irina, 2018. "FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 198-225.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anderson, James E. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Trade and investment in the global economy: A multi-country dynamic analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Larch, Mario & Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2017. "Trade Liberalization, Growth, and FDI: A Structural Estimation Framework," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168071, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Benedikt Heid, 2020. "Quantifying the Supply and Demand Effects of Natural Disasters Using Monthly Trade Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 8798, CESifo.
    5. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Rebecca Freeman & Mario Larch & Angelos Theodorakopoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Unlocking New Methods to Estimate Country-Specific Trade Costs and Trade Elasticities," CESifo Working Paper Series 9432, CESifo.
    7. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Anderson, James & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2015. "Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2015-2, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    9. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2016. "General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6020, CESifo.
    10. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    11. Pamela Smith & Xiangwen Kong, 2022. "Intellectual property rights and trade: The exceptional case of GMOs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 763-811, March.
    12. Joseph B. Steinberg, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of NAFTA termination," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 821-865, May.
    13. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    14. Peter Egger & Sergey K. Nigai, 2016. "World-Trade Growth Accounting," CESifo Working Paper Series 5831, CESifo.
    15. Mario Larch & Yoto Yotov, 2017. "On the impact of TTIP in Southeastern and Eastern Europe: A quantitative analysis," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 54-73,74-92.
    16. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    17. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Erdal Yalcin & Yoto V. Yotov, 2020. "On the Heterogeneous Trade and Welfare Effects of GATT/WTO Membership," CESifo Working Paper Series 8555, CESifo.
    18. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2020. "Gravity-Model Estimation with Time-Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," CESifo Working Paper Series 8553, CESifo.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ravikumar, B. & Santacreu, Ana Maria & Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Capital accumulation and dynamic gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 93-110.
    21. Yoto Yotov & Mario Larch & James Anderson, 2015. "Growth and Trade: A Structural Estimation Framework," 2015 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Direct Investment; Trade; Trade Liberalization; Capital Accumulation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2017_009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbdreus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard C. Barnett (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbdreus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.