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Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Galle
  • Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
  • Moises Yi

Abstract

We develop a multi-sector gravity model with heterogeneous workers to quantify the aggregate and group-level welfare effects of trade. We estimate the model using the structural relationship between China-shock driven changes in manufacturing employment and average earnings across US groups defined by commuting zone and education. We find that the China shock increases average welfare but some groups experience losses as high as five times the average gain. Adjusted for plausible measures of inequality aversion, gains in social welfare are positive and only slightly lower than with the standard aggregation.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Galle & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Moises Yi, 2017. "Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade," NBER Working Papers 23737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23737
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carrère, Céline & Grujovic, Anja & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2015. "Trade and frictional unemployment in the global economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66490, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Eunhee Lee, 2016. "Trade, Inequality, and the Endogenous Sorting of Heterogeneous Workers," 2016 Meeting Papers 639, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Matilde Bombardini & Francesco Trebbi, 2012. "Risk Aversion And Expected Utility Theory: An Experiment With Large And Small Stakes," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1348-1399, December.
    4. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    5. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2015. "The Impact of Trade on Labor Market Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 21149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    7. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Faber & Cecile Gaubert, 2016. "Tourism and Economic Development: Evidence from Mexico's Coastline," NBER Working Papers 22300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & Suedekum, Jens, 2016. "Adjusting to globalization - Evidence from worker-establishment matches in Germany," DICE Discussion Papers 205, University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    3. Lorenzo Caliendo & Luca David Opromolla & Fernando Parro & Alessandro Sforza, 2017. "Goods and Factor Market Integration: A Quantitative Assessment of the EU Enlargement," CEP Discussion Papers dp1494, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. repec:anr:reveco:v:9:y:2017:p:21-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:387-412 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Carrère, Céline & Grujovic, Anja & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2015. "Trade and frictional unemployment in the global economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66490, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Owen Zidar & Juan Carlos Serrato & Eduardo Morales & Pablo Fajgelbaum, 2015. "State Taxes and Spatial Misallocation," 2015 Meeting Papers 877, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Konstantin Kucheryavyy & Gary Lyn & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2016. "Grounded by Gravity: A Well-Behaved Trade Model with Industry-Level Economies of Scale," NBER Working Papers 22484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Teresa C. Fort & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," NBER Working Papers 24490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Colin J. Hottman & Ryan Monarch, 2018. "Estimating Unequal Gains across U.S. Consumers with Supplier Trade Data," Working Papers 18-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Antràs, Pol & de Gortari, Alonso & Itskhoki, Oleg, 2017. "Globalization, inequality and welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 387-412.
    12. Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2017. "Quantitative Spatial Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 21-58, September.
    13. Yuan Zi, 2016. "Trade Liberalization and the Great Labor Reallocation," IHEID Working Papers 18-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    14. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    15. Ariel Burstein & Gordon Hanson & Lin Tian & Jonathan Vogel, 2017. "Tradability and the Labor-Market Impact of Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the U.S," NBER Working Papers 23330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Lin Tian & Jonathan Vogel & Gordon Hanson & Ariel Burstein, 2017. "Immigration, Occupations, and Local Labor Markets: Theory and Evidence from the U.S," 2017 Meeting Papers 79, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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