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Economic Shocks and Internal Migration

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  • Monras, Joan

Abstract

Internal migration can respond to local shocks through either changes in in- or out-migration rates. This paper documents that most of the response of internal migration is accounted for by variation in in-migration. I develop and estimate a parsimonious general equilibrium dynamic spatial model around this fact. I then use the model to evaluate the speed of convergence and long run change in welfare across metropolitan areas given the heterogeneous incidence of the Great Recession at the local level. The paper shows that while there are some lasting effects of the Great Recession across locations, at least 60 percent of the initial differences potentially dissipate across space within around 10 years. This is true even when locals from the most affected metropolitan areas do not out-migrate in higher proportions in response to local shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Monras, Joan, 2018. "Economic Shocks and Internal Migration," CEPR Discussion Papers 12977, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12977
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Internal migration and local labor market dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J43 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Agricultural Labor Markets
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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