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A Dynamic Model of Demand for Houses and Neighborhoods

  • Patrick Bayer
  • Robert McMillan
  • Alvin Murphy
  • Christopher Timmins

This paper develops a dynamic model of neighborhood choice along with a computationally light multi-step estimator. The proposed empirical framework captures observed and unobserved preference heterogeneity across households and locations in a flexible way. The model is estimated using a newly assembled data set that matches demographic information from mortgage applications to the universe of housing transactions in the San Francisco Bay Area from 1994- 2004. The results provide the first estimates of the marginal willingness to pay for several non-marketed amenities – neighborhood air pollution, violent crime and racial composition – in a dynamic framework. Comparing these estimates with those from a static version of the model highlights several important biases that arise when dynamic considerations are ignored.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17250.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17250
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  1. Bajari, Patrick & Benkard, C. Lanier & Krainer, John, 2004. "House Prices and Consumer Welfare," Research Papers 1840, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  2. Cragg, Michael & Kahn, Matthew, 1997. "New Estimates of Climate Demand: Evidence from Location Choice," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 261-284, September.
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  4. Patrick Bayer & Fernando Ferreira & Robert McMillan, 2007. "A Unified Framework for Measuring Preferences for Schools and Neighborhoods," NBER Working Papers 13236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Steve Gibbons, 2003. "The Costs of Urban Property Crime," CEP Discussion Papers dp0574, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  16. Patrick Bayer & Nathaniel Keohane & Christopher Timmins, 2006. "Migration and Hedonic Valuation: The Case of Air Quality," NBER Working Papers 12106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Epple, Dennis & Romer, Thomas, 1991. "Mobility and Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 828-58, August.
  18. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1637-1673, November.
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  30. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6486 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Kuminoff, Nicolai V. & Jarrah, Abdul Salam, 2010. "A new approach to computing hedonic equilibria and investigating the properties of locational sorting models," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 322-335, May.
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  33. Nechyba, Thomas J, 1999. " School Finance Induced Migration and Stratification Patterns: The Impact of Private School Vouchers," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 1(1), pages 5-50.
  34. Maria Marta Ferreyra, 2007. "Estimating the Effects of Private School Vouchers in Multidistrict Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 789-817, June.
  35. Epple, Dennis & Romano, Richard E, 1998. "Competition between Private and Public Schools, Vouchers, and Peer-Group Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 33-62, March.
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