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What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes?

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Abstract

We develop a structural framework to identify the sources of cross-state heterogeneity in response to US tariff changes. We quantify the effects of unilaterally increasing US tariffs by 25 percentage points across sectors. Welfare changes range from −0.8 percent in Oregon to 2.1 percent in Montana. States gain more when their sectoral comparative advantage covaries negatively with that of the aggregate US. Consequently, “preferred” changes in tariffs vary systematically across states, indicating the importance of transfers in aligning state preferences over trade policy. Foreign retaliation substantially reduces the gains across states while perpetuating the cross-state variation.

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  • Ana Maria Santacreu & Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang, 2021. "What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes?," Working Papers 2021-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 08 Mar 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:92106
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2021.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel R. Carroll & Sewon Hur, 2020. "On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs," Working Papers 20-18R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 13 Feb 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    interstate trade; gains from trade; customs union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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