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Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock

Author

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  • Rodríguez-Clare, Andres
  • Ulate, Mauricio
  • Vasquez, Jose P.

Abstract

We present a dynamic quantitative trade and migration model that incorporates downward nominal wage rigidities and show how this framework can generate changes in unemployment and labor participation that match those uncovered by the empirical literature studying the ``China shock.'' We find that the China shock leads to average welfare increases in most U.S. states, including many that experience unemployment during the transition. However, nominal rigidities reduce the overall U.S. gains by around one fourth. In addition, there are seven states that experience welfare losses in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity that would have experienced gains without it.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodríguez-Clare, Andres & Ulate, Mauricio & Vasquez, Jose P., 2022. "Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock," CEPR Discussion Papers 17141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17141
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    2. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Mileva, Mariya, 2024. "Trade liberalization, wage inequality, and monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & João Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2023. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1109-1171.
    4. Pedro Dias Moreira & João Monteiro, 2023. "The Impact of a Higher Cost of Credit on Exporters: Evidence from a Change in Banking Regulation," Working Papers w202320, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Maggie R. Jones & Bradley Setzler, 2024. "Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization," Working Papers 24-78, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Redding, Stephen, 2020. "Trade and Geography," CEPR Discussion Papers 15268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Galle, Simon & Lorentzen, Linnea, 2024. "The unequal effects of trade and automation across local labor markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 16780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Adao, Rodrigo & Costinot, Arnaud & Donaldson, Dave & Sturm Becko, John, 2023. "Why is Trade Not Free? A Revealed Preference Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 18567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Komarek, Timothy M. & Butts, Kyle & Wagner, Gary A., 2022. "Government Contracting, Labor Intensity, and the Local Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from the Budget Control Act of 2011," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Federico Esposito & Fadi Hassan, 2023. "Import competition, trade credit and financial frictions in general equilibrium," CEP Discussion Papers dp1901, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Tom Schmitz & Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2024. "Regional and Aggregate Economic Consequences of Environmental Policy," Working Papers 2024.10, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Auray, Stéphane & Devereux, Michael B. & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2025. "Trade wars and the optimal design of monetary rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    14. Colantone, Italo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Takeda, Kohei, 2024. "Trade and Intergenerational Income Mobility: Theory and Evidence from the U.S," FEEM Working Papers 348542, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    15. Ana Maria Santacreu & Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang, 2021. "What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes?," Working Papers 2021-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 08 Mar 2023.
    16. Leonard Bocquet, 2022. "The Network Origin of Slow Labor Reallocation," Working Papers halshs-03703862, HAL.
    17. Ravikumar, B. & Santacreu, Ana Maria & Sposi, Michael, 2024. "Trade liberalization versus protectionism: Dynamic welfare asymmetries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    18. Wen-Tai Hsu & Hsuan-Chih (Luke) Lin & Han Yang, 2024. "Long-run belief-scarring effects of COVID-19 in a global economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 78(3), pages 709-752, November.
    19. Tom Schmitz & Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2024. "Regional and Aggregate Economic Consequences of Environmental Policy Abstract: This paper shows how to combine microeconometric evidence on the effects of environmental policy with a macroeconomic mod," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24225, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    20. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2023. "Supply Chain Disruptions, Trade Costs, and Labor Markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(02), pages 1-5, January.
    21. Dinopoulos, Elias & Heins, Gunnar & Unel, Bulent, 2024. "Tariff wars, unemployment, and top incomes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    22. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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