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The 2025 Trade War: Dynamic Impacts Across U.S. States and the Global Economy

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Abstract

We use a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of the recent increase in the U.S. tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, as well as the “reciprocal” tariff changes announced on “Liberation Day” and retaliatory measures by other countries. Higher tariffs trigger an expansion in U.S. manufacturing employment, but this comes at the expense of declines in service and agricultural employment, with overall employment declining as lower real wages reduce labor-force participation. For the United States as a whole, real income falls around 1% by 2028, the last year we assume the high tariffs are in effect. Importantly, our analysis disaggregates the U.S. into its 50 states, while incorporating cross-state redistribution of the tariff-generated fiscal revenue, allowing us to analyze which states gain or lose more from the shock. Around half of the states lose, with some states experiencing real income declines of more than 3%. Turning to cross-country results, some close U.S. trading partners—like Canada, Mexico, China, and Ireland—suffer the largest real income losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2025. "The 2025 Trade War: Dynamic Impacts Across U.S. States and the Global Economy," Working Paper Series 2025-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:99957
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2025-09
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade; Trade Dynamics; reallocation; downward nominal wage rigidity; tariffs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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