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What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?

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Abstract

The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a large shock on unemployment and inflation is by looking at data from pre-World War II periods with tariff rate changes of a similar magnitude. Analysis shows that previous tariff hikes raised unemployment and reduced both economic activity and inflation. Uncertainty may be a factor behind these effects: A large tariff increase raises uncertainty, which can depress overall demand and lead to lower inflation.

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  • Régis Barnichon & Aayush Singh, 2026. "What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2026(01), pages 1-5, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:102299
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