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When neighbours stop knocking: The impact of Canada's 2025 tourism decline on U.S. local labour markets

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  • Kurmann, André
  • Lalé, Etienne
  • Martin, Julien

Abstract

We provide the first systematic evidence on the labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code × industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that establishments in highly exposed markets experienced employment declines of about 6%, implying a loss of 13,900 to 42,100 jobs. These effects are spatially concentrated and should be interpreted as lower bounds, as our analysis focuses on small and medium establishments and abstracts from spillover effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurmann, André & Lalé, Etienne & Martin, Julien, 2026. "When neighbours stop knocking: The impact of Canada's 2025 tourism decline on U.S. local labour markets," CLEF Working Paper Series 94, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:clefwp:338098
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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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