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Tariffs hit differently: The regional impact of US tariffs across Europe and the role of the single market

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  • Felbermayr, Gabriel
  • Hinz, Julian
  • Krantz, Sebastian
  • Mahlkow, Hendrik
  • Wanner, Joschka

Abstract

How do adverse global trade shocks affect sub-national outcomes, and what insurance does regional integration provide? We study the EU Single Market using a large-scale quantitative trade model with regional labour mobility, calibrated to a new NUTS2- based Regionalized Inter-Country Input-Output (REICIO) database. Comparing four baselines, from a fully frag-mented Europe to deep integration, we evaluate the 2025 US tariffs. Full integration of EU goods and labour markets reduces the average regional loss in real value added per capita by about 25% and more than halves its dispersion. Further deepening barely improves the mean but compresses the distribution of regional impacts even further.

Suggested Citation

  • Felbermayr, Gabriel & Hinz, Julian & Krantz, Sebastian & Mahlkow, Hendrik & Wanner, Joschka, 2025. "Tariffs hit differently: The regional impact of US tariffs across Europe and the role of the single market," Kiel Working Papers 2309, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:334528
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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