IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qmw/qmwecw/980.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Regional and Aggregate Economic Consequences of Environmental Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Schmitz

    (Queen Mary University of London and CEPR)

  • Italo Colantone

    (Bocconi University, Baffi-Carefin Research Centre, CESifo and FEEM)

  • Gianmarco Ottaviano

    (Bocconi University, Baffi-Carefin Research Centre, CEP, CEPR and IGIER)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the aggregate impact of air pollution regulations introduced by the US Environmental Protection Agency in the early 2000s. We first provide regression evidence on the regulations’ effects across industries and local labor markets. We then use these results to calibrate a quantitative model allowing for general equilibrium spillovers through trade, migration, industry switching, input-output linkages and emission externalities. Our model implies that regulations lowered emissions by 11.1%, but also destroyed between 228’000 and 267’000 jobs. Ignoring general equilibrium spillovers and naively extrapolating from our regressions overestimates job losses in polluting industries, but underestimates job losses in clean industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Schmitz & Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2024. "Regional and Aggregate Economic Consequences of Environmental Policy," Working Papers 980, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:980
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/sef/media/econ/research/workingpapers/2024/wp980.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph E. Aldy & Maximilian Auffhammer & Maureen Cropper & Arthur Fraas & Richard Morgenstern, 2022. "Looking Back at 50 Years of the Clean Air Act," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 179-232, March.
    2. W. Reed Walker, 2011. "Environmental Regulation and Labor Reallocation: Evidence from the Clean Air Act," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 442-447, May.
    3. Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2018. "Why Is Pollution from US Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3814-3854, December.
    4. Henderson, J Vernon, 1996. "Effects of Air Quality Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 789-813, September.
    5. Adam Isen & Maya Rossin-Slater & W. Reed Walker, 2017. "Every Breath You Take—Every Dollar You’ll Make: The Long-Term Consequences of the Clean Air Act of 1970," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 848-902.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    7. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & José P. Vásquez, 2020. "Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock," NBER Working Papers 27905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    9. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    10. Alex Hollingworth & Taylor Jaworski & Carl Kitchens & Ivan Rudik, 2022. "Economic Geography and the Efficiency of Environmental Regulation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9644, CESifo.
    11. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    12. Francesco Vona & Giovanni Marin & Davide Consoli, 2019. "Measures, drivers and effects of green employment: evidence from US local labor markets, 2006–2014," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(5), pages 1021-1048.
    13. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    14. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
    15. John A. List & Daniel L. Millimet & Per G. Fredriksson & W. Warren McHone, 2003. "Effects of Environmental Regulations on Manufacturing Plant Births: Evidence from a Propensity Score Matching Estimator," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 944-952, November.
    16. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Patrick Kline & Emmanuel Saez, 2014. "Where is the land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1553-1623.
    17. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mansur, Erin T., 2013. "Do local energy prices and regulation affect the geographic concentration of employment?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 105-114.
    18. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    19. Kenneth Y. Chay & Michael Greenstone, 2003. "Air Quality, Infant Mortality, and the Clean Air Act of 1970," Working Papers 0406, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    20. Janet Currie & Reed Walker, 2019. "What Do Economists Have to Say about the Clean Air Act 50 Years after the Establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    21. Schott, Peter & Yang, Natalie & Eckert, Fabian & Fort, Teresa, 2020. "Imputing Missing Values in the US Census Bureau's County Business Patterns," CEPR Discussion Papers 14352, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Michael Greenstone, 2002. "The Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Industrial Activity: Evidence from the 1970 and 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments and the Census of Manufactures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1175-1219, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sager, Lutz & Singer, Gregor, 2023. "Clean identification? The effects of the Clean Air Act on air pollution, exposure disparities and house prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115528, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Kozluk, Tomasz & Kruse, Tobias & Nachtigall, Daniel & de Serres, Alain, 2019. "Do Environmental and Economic Performance Go Together? A Review of Micro-level Empirical Evidence from the Past Decade or So," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 13(1-2), pages 1-118, April.
    3. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esposito, 2019. "General Equilibrium Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 25544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Li, Shuo & Wang, Min, 2022. "Environmental Regulation and Firms’ Extensive Margin Decisions," EfD Discussion Paper 22-15, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    5. Aldy, Joseph E. & Auffhammer, Maximillian & Cropper, Maureen L. & Fraas, Arthur G. & Morgenstern, Richard D., 2020. "Looking Back at Fifty Years of the Clean Air Act," RFF Working Paper Series 20-01, Resources for the Future.
    6. Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2018. "Why Is Pollution from US Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3814-3854, December.
    7. Francesco Vona & Giovanni Marin & Davide Consoli & David Popp, 2015. "Green Skills," Working Papers 2015.72, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Marin, Giovanni & Vona, Francesco, 2019. "Climate policies and skill-biased employment dynamics: Evidence from EU countries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Liu, Mengdi & Tan, Ruipeng & Zhang, Bing, 2021. "The costs of “blue sky”: Environmental regulation, technology upgrading, and labor demand in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5ahh4t5kfl8nprei89ignlk5nl is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7upb3pbvdn8fbq3fscr7otbg9t is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Alex Hollingworth & Taylor Jaworski & Carl Kitchens & Ivan Rudik, 2022. "Economic Geography and the Efficiency of Environmental Regulation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9644, CESifo.
    13. Zhu, Junming & Ruth, Matthias, 2015. "Relocation or reallocation: Impacts of differentiated energy saving regulation on manufacturing industries in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 119-133.
    14. Francesco Vona, 2018. "Job losses and the political acceptability of climate policies : an amplified collective action problem," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7upb3pbvdn8, Sciences Po.
    15. Janet Currie & Reed Walker, 2019. "What Do Economists Have to Say about the Clean Air Act 50 Years after the Establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    16. Tanaka, Shinsuke, 2015. "Environmental regulations on air pollution in China and their impact on infant mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 90-103.
    17. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & João Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2023. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1109-1171.
    18. Glenn Sheriff & Ann E. Ferris & Ronald J. Shadbegian, 2015. "How Did Air Quality Standards Affect Employment at U.S. Power Plants? The Importance of Stringency, Geography, and Timing," NCEE Working Paper Series 201501, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised May 2015.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1fkb59dcsg9alqqq6qv18jj5us is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Francesco Vona & Giovanni Marin & Davide Consoli & David Popp, 2018. "Environmental Regulation and Green Skills: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(4), pages 713-753.
    21. Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2015. "Why is Pollution from U.S. Manufacturing Declining" The Roles of Trade, Regulation, Productivity, and Preferences," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1982R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 2016.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3qoljitavv93bptuhfaq9drocb is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Francesco Vona, 2018. "Job losses and the political acceptability of climate policies : an amplified collective action problem," Post-Print hal-03458275, HAL.
    24. Agarwal, Sumit & Deng, Yongheng & Li, Teng, 2019. "Environmental regulation as a double-edged sword for housing markets: Evidence from the NOx Budget Trading Program," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 286-309.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Policy; Fine Particles; Clean Air Act; Employment; Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:980. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicholas Owen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deqmwuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.