IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27905.html

Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
  • Mauricio Ulate
  • José P. Vásquez

Abstract

We present a dynamic quantitative trade and migration model that incorporates downward nominal wage rigidities and show how this framework can generate changes in unemployment and labor participation that match those uncovered by the empirical literature studying the “China shock.” We find that the China shock leads to average welfare increases in most U.S. states, including many that experience unemployment during the transition. However, nominal rigidities reduce the overall U.S. gains by around two thirds. In addition, there are 18 states that experience welfare losses in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity that would have experienced gains without it.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & José P. Vásquez, 2020. "Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock," NBER Working Papers 27905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27905
    Note: ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27905.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Galle, Simon & Lorentzen, Linnea, 2024. "The unequal effects of trade and automation across local labor markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 16780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Adao, Rodrigo & Costinot, Arnaud & Donaldson, Dave & Sturm Becko, John, 2023. "Why is Trade Not Free? A Revealed Preference Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 18567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & João Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2023. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1109-1171.
    5. Federico Esposito & Fadi Hassan, 2023. "Import competition, trade credit and financial frictions in general equilibrium," CEP Discussion Papers dp1901, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Tom Schmitz & Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2024. "Regional and Aggregate Economic Consequences of Environmental Policy," Working Papers 2024.10, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Auray, Stéphane & Devereux, Michael B. & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2025. "Trade wars and the optimal design of monetary rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Ravikumar, B. & Santacreu, Ana Maria & Sposi, Michael, 2024. "Trade liberalization versus protectionism: Dynamic welfare asymmetries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    9. Stephen J. Redding, 2020. "Trade and geography," CEP Discussion Papers dp1718, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Maggie R. Jones & Bradley Setzler, 2024. "Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization," Working Papers 24-78, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Tom Schmitz & Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2024. "Regional and Aggregate Economic Consequences of Environmental Policy Abstract: This paper shows how to combine microeconometric evidence on the effects of environmental policy with a macroeconomic model, accounting for general equilibrium spillovers ," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24225, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    12. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2023. "Supply Chain Disruptions, Trade Costs, and Labor Markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(02), pages 1-5, January.
    13. Dinopoulos, Elias & Heins, Gunnar & Unel, Bulent, 2024. "Tariff wars, unemployment, and top incomes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    14. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.
    15. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Mileva, Mariya, 2024. "Trade liberalization, wage inequality, and monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    16. Pedro Dias Moreira & João Monteiro, 2023. "The Impact of a Higher Cost of Credit on Exporters: Evidence from a Change in Banking Regulation," Working Papers w202320, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Komarek, Timothy M. & Butts, Kyle & Wagner, Gary A., 2022. "Government Contracting, Labor Intensity, and the Local Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from the Budget Control Act of 2011," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. Colantone, Italo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Takeda, Kohei, 2024. "Trade and Intergenerational Income Mobility: Theory and Evidence from the U.S," FEEM Working Papers 348542, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    19. Ana Maria Santacreu & Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang, 2021. "What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes?," Working Papers 2021-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 08 Mar 2023.
    20. Leonard Bocquet, 2022. "The Network Origin of Slow Labor Reallocation," Working Papers halshs-03703862, HAL.
    21. Wen-Tai Hsu & Hsuan-Chih (Luke) Lin & Han Yang, 2024. "Long-run belief-scarring effects of COVID-19 in a global economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 78(3), pages 709-752, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27905. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.