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When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada's 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Labor Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Kurmann, André

    (Drexel University)

  • Lalé, Etienne

    (York University, Canada)

  • Martin, Julien

    (Université du Québec à Montréal, CEPR, and CIRANO)

Abstract

We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code x industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment declines of about 6% compared to less exposed ones. Our estimates imply between 13,900 and 42,100 jobs lost, concentrated in a small number of localities.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurmann, André & Lalé, Etienne & Martin, Julien, 2026. "When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada's 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 18626, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18626
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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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