Touristification and the Unequal Incidence of Housing Shocks: Evidence from Tax Records

Touristification has emerged as a transformative yet contentious force in urban economies, creating both economic opportunities and displacement pressures. We estimate the impact of a rapid touristification boom on residential mobility, household income levels, and income composition in two European cities heavily exposed to tourism pressure. Using administrative tax records from 2016-2019 and an instrumental variable strategy based on proximity to tourist amenities, we show that short-term rental expansion significantly increased out-migration rates, particularly among lower-income residents and tenants. While incumbent homeowners who remain in highly touristified areas experience income gains, movers exhibit weaker labour-market outcomes. Our findings highlight the highly unequal incidence of tourism-driven housing shocks.