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Touristification and the Unequal Incidence of Housing Shocks: Evidence from Tax Records

Author

Listed:
  • Páscoa, Jorge

    (Nova SBE)

  • Peralta, Susana

    (Nova SBE)

  • Pereira dos Santos, João

    (ISEG)

Abstract

Touristification has emerged as a transformative yet contentious force in urban economies, creating both economic opportunities and displacement pressures. We estimate the impact of a rapid touristification boom on residential mobility, household income levels, and income composition in two European cities heavily exposed to tourism pressure. Using administrative tax records from 2016-2019 and an instrumental variable strategy based on proximity to tourist amenities, we show that short-term rental expansion significantly increased out-migration rates, particularly among lower-income residents and tenants. While incumbent homeowners who remain in highly touristified areas experience income gains, movers exhibit weaker labour-market outcomes. Our findings highlight the highly unequal incidence of tourism-driven housing shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Páscoa, Jorge & Peralta, Susana & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2026. "Touristification and the Unequal Incidence of Housing Shocks: Evidence from Tax Records," IZA Discussion Papers 18666, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18666
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • Z38 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Policy
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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