IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp18073.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can’t Buy Me Home: Beliefs, Facts, and Policy in the Housing Affordability Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Botelho Azevedo, Alda

    (Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

  • Gonçalves, Inês

    (Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

  • Pereira dos Santos, João

    (ISEG)

Abstract

Our study investigates public opinion on the housing affordability crisis in Portugal through a nationally representative survey combined with an information provision experiment. Participants were asked to identify perceived causes of rising housing prices, assess their factual knowledge of the housing market and sociodemographic trends, and indicate their preferred policy solutions, carefully framed to reflect trade-offs. Half of the respondents were randomly assigned to receive official statistical information on these trends before indicating their policy preferences. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in beliefs about the causes of the crisis, pervasive misperceptions regarding market trends, and a limited impact of information provision on policy preferences. These results underscore the challenges of addressing housing policy through informational interventions alone and highlight the need for strategies that integrate behavioral and contextual factors to foster informed public engagement.

Suggested Citation

  • Botelho Azevedo, Alda & Gonçalves, Inês & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2025. "Can’t Buy Me Home: Beliefs, Facts, and Policy in the Housing Affordability Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 18073, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp18073.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Armando Miano & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2023. "Immigration and Redistribution," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 1-39.
    2. Facchini, Giovanni & Margalit, Yotam & Nakata, Hiroyuki, 2022. "Countering public opposition to immigration: The impact of information campaigns," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Christopher S. Elmendorf & Clayton Nall & Stan Oklobdzija, 2025. "The Folk Economics of Housing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 45-66, Summer.
    4. Pereira dos Santos, João & Strohmaier, Kristina, 2024. "All That Glitters? Golden Visas and Real Estate," IZA Discussion Papers 16857, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2023. "How to Run Surveys: A Guide to Creating Your Own Identifying Variation and Revealing the Invisible," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 15(1), pages 205-234, September.
    6. Roth, Christopher & Settele, Sonja & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Beliefs about public debt and the demand for government spending," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 165-187.
    7. Sonja Settele, 2022. "How Do Beliefs about the Gender Wage Gap Affect the Demand for Public Policy?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 475-508, May.
    8. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Adrien Fabre & Tobias Kruse & Bluebery Planterose & Ana Sanchez Chico & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2025. "Fighting Climate Change: International Attitudes toward Climate Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(4), pages 1258-1300, April.
    9. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Krolage, Carla & Neumeier, Florian, 2025. "Who bears the burden of real estate transfer taxes? Evidence from the German housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Felix Chopra & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2025. "Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(7), pages 2267-2305, July.
    11. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Mathilde Muñoz & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2020. "Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 119-142, Spring.
    12. David H. Autor & Christopher J. Palmer & Parag A. Pathak, 2014. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from the End of Rent Control in Cambridge, Massachusetts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 661-717.
    13. Christopher Roth & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 34-53, March.
    14. Roland G FryerJr & Philipp Harms & Matthew O Jackson, 2019. "Updating Beliefs when Evidence is Open to Interpretation: Implications for Bias and Polarization," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1470-1501.
    15. Thomas Douenne & Adrien Fabre, 2022. "Yellow Vests, Pessimistic Beliefs, and Carbon Tax Aversion," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 81-110, February.
    16. Steffen Andersen & Julie Marx & Kasper Meisner Nielsen & Lise Vesterlund, 2021. "Gender Differences in Negotiation: Evidence from Real Estate Transactions," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2304-2332.
    17. Charness, Gary & Gneezy, Uri & Rasocha, Vlastimil, 2021. "Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 234-256.
    18. Ilyana Kuziemko & Michael I. Norton & Emmanuel Saez & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2015. "How Elastic Are Preferences for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1478-1508, April.
    19. Besley, Timothy & Meads, Neil & Surico, Paolo, 2014. "The incidence of transaction taxes: Evidence from a stamp duty holiday," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 61-70.
    20. Alberto Alesina & Stefanie Stantcheva & Edoardo Teso, 2018. "Intergenerational Mobility and Preferences for Redistribution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 521-554, February.
    21. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Designing Information Provision Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 3-40, March.
    22. Salla Kalin & Antoine B. Levy & Mathilde Muñoz, 2024. "Pensioners Without Borders: Agglomeration and the Migration Response to Taxation," NBER Working Papers 32890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Ronize Cruz & Francisco Nobre & João Pereira dos Santos, 2024. "The Economic Footprint of Short-Term Rentals on local businesses: Evidence from Portugal," CeBER Working Papers 2024-04, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    24. Coulson, N. Edward & Le, Thao & Ortego-Marti, Victor & Shen, Lily, 2025. "Tenant rights, eviction, and rent affordability," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    25. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2021. "Understanding Tax Policy: How do People Reason?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2309-2369.
    26. Mense, Andreas & Michelsen, Claus & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2023. "Rent Control, Market Segmentation, and Misallocation: Causal Evidence from a Large-Scale Policy Intervention," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    27. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joël Weele, 2015. "A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(3), pages 457-490, September.
    28. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    29. Rebecca Diamond & Tim McQuade & Franklin Qian, 2019. "The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3365-3394, September.
    30. Yannis M. Ioannides & L. Rachel Ngai, 2025. "Housing and Inequality," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 916-963, September.
    31. Nicolas Bottan & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2025. "Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 459-500, January.
    32. Chad Kendall & Ryan Oprea, 2024. "On the complexity of forming mental models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), pages 175-211, January.
    33. Batalha, Mafalda & Gonçalves, Duarte & Peralta, Susana & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2022. "The virus that devastated tourism: The impact of covid-19 on the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    34. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth, 2023. "Beliefs about Racial Discrimination and Support for Pro-Black Policies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 40-53, January.
    35. Alfaro, Laura & Chen, Maggie & Chor, Davin, 2022. "Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?," 2022: Transforming Global Value Chains, December 11-13, Clearwater Beach, FL 339437, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    36. João Pereira dos Santos & Kristina Strohmaier, 2024. "All that glitters? Golden visas and real estate," Working Papers 023, EU Tax Observatory.
    37. Greg Howard & Jack Liebersohn, 2025. "How Regional Inequality and Migration Drive Housing Prices and Rents," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    38. Ioannides, Yannis M & Ngai, L. Rachel, 2025. "Housing and inequality," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127648, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    39. Ben-Shahar, Danny & Golan, Roni, 2019. "Improved information shock and price dispersion: A natural experiment in the housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 70-84.
    40. Aditya Aladangady, 2017. "Housing Wealth and Consumption: Evidence from Geographically-Linked Microdata," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3415-3446, November.
    41. Gonçalves, Duarte & Peralta, Susana & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2022. "Short-Term Rental Bans and Housing Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Lisbon," IZA Discussion Papers 15706, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    42. Franco, Sofia F. & Santos, Carlos Daniel, 2021. "The impact of Airbnb on residential property values and rents: Evidence from Portugal," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    43. Sonja Settele, 2022. "How Do Beliefs About the Gender Wage Gap Affect the Demand for Public Policy?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 179, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    44. Slemrod, Joel & Weber, Caroline & Shan, Hui, 2017. "The behavioral response to housing transfer taxes: Evidence from a notched change in D.C. policy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 137-153.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alda Botelho Azevedo & Inês Gonçalves & João Pereira dos Santos, 2025. "Can’t Buy Me Home – Beliefs, Facts, and Policy in the Housing Affordability Crisis," GEE Papers 191, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jun 2025.
    2. Lasse J. Jessen & Sebastian Koehne & Patrick Nüß & Jens Ruhose, 2024. "Socioeconomic Inequality in Life Expectancy: Perception and Policy Demand," CESifo Working Paper Series 10940, CESifo.
    3. Günther, Isabel & Martorano, Bruno, 2025. "Inequality, social mobility and redistributive preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Riccardo Bruni & Alessandro Gioffré & Maria Marino, 2025. "In‐group bias in preferences for redistribution: a survey experiment in Italy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(367), pages 1009-1080, July.
    5. Francesco Capozza & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Studying Information Acquisition in the Field: A Practical Guide and Review," CEBI working paper series 21-15, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    6. Lergetporer, Philipp & Woessmann, Ludger, 2023. "Earnings information and public preferences for university tuition: Evidence from representative experiments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    7. Isabel Busom & Cristina Lopez-Mayan & Jordi Brandts, 2024. "Do Voice and Social Information Contribute to Changing Views about Rent Control Policy?," Working Papers 1428, Barcelona School of Economics.
    8. Lergetporer, Philipp & Woessmann, Ludger, 2022. "Income Contingency and the Electorate's Support for Tuition," IZA Discussion Papers 14991, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Henkel, Aljosha & Fehr, Ernst & Senn, Julien & Epper, Thomas, 2025. "Beliefs about inequality and the nature of support for redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    10. Haaland, Ingar & Roth, Christopher, 2020. "Labor market concerns and support for immigration," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Hermes, Henning & Lergetporer, Philipp & Mierisch, Fabian & Schwerdt, Guido & Wiederhold, Simon, 2024. "Information about inequality in early child care reduces polarization in policy preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    12. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Designing Information Provision Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 3-40, March.
    13. Cars Hommes & Julien Pinter & Isabelle Salle, 2023. "What People Believe about Monetary Finance and What We Can(‘t) Do about It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 10574, CESifo.
    14. Marino, Maria & Iacono, Roberto & Mollerstrom, Johanna, 2024. "(Mis-)Perceptions, information, and political polarization: A survey and a systematic literature review," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Hermes, Henning & Lergetporer, Philipp & Mierisch, Fabian & Schwerdt, Guido & Wiederhold, Simon, 2024. "Does Information about Inequality and Discrimination in Early Child Care Affect Policy Preferences?," IZA Discussion Papers 16759, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Angerer, Silvia & Glätzle-Rützler, Daniela & Lergetporer, Philipp & Rittmannsberger, Thomas, 2023. "How does the vaccine approval procedure affect COVID-19 vaccination intentions?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    17. Brandts, Jordi & Busom, Isabel & Lopez-Mayan, Cristina, 2025. "Do giving voice and social information help in revising a misconception about rent–control?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    18. Cetre, Sophie & Algan, Yann & Grimalda, Gianluca & Murtin, Fabrice & Pipke, David & Putterman, Louis & Schmidt, Ulrich & Siegerink, Vincent, 2024. "Ethnic bias, economic achievement and trust between large ethnic groups: A study in Germany and the U.S," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 996-1021.
    19. Alice Pizzo & Christina Gravert & Jan M. Bauer & Lucia Reisch, 2024. "Carbon Taxes Crowd Out Climate Concern: Experimental Evidence from Sustainable Consumer Choices," CEBI working paper series 24-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    20. Roth, Christopher & Settele, Sonja & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Beliefs about public debt and the demand for government spending," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 165-187.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.