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Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices

Author

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  • Nicolas Bottan
  • Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Abstract

Home price expectations play a central role in macroeconomics and finance. However, there is little direct evidence on their effect on market choices. We provide causal evidence using a large-scale, high-stakes field experiment in the United States. We sent letters about home price trends to 57,910 homeowners who listed their homes. These letters contained randomized information creating nondeceptive, exogenous variation in home price expectations. Consistent with economic theory, higher expectations reduced selling probability. Behavior was highly elastic: a 1 percentage point increase in expectations caused a 2.63 percentage point reduction in the probability of selling the property within 12 weeks.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Bottan & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2025. "Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 459-500, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:17:y:2025:i:1:p:459-500
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20230641
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brad Nathan & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Alejandro Zentner, 2025. "My Taxes Are Too Darn High: Why Do Households Protest Their Taxes?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 273-310, February.
    2. Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 37-47.
    3. Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto, 2025. "Inflation expectations and price-setting decisions: insights from the housing market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1507, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Pinar Yildirim & Andrei Simonov & Maria Petrova & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2024. "Are Political and Charitable Giving Substitutes? Evidence from the United States," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(11), pages 8030-8043, November.
    5. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    6. Francesco Capozza & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Studying Information Acquisition in the Field: A Practical Guide and Review," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 124, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    7. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Rüdiger Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs about the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Survey and a Field Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 9427, CESifo.
    8. Klaus W. Deininger & Thea Hilhorst & Zevenbergen,Jaap & Nkurunziza,Emmanuel, 2025. "Capitalizing on Digital Transformation to Enhance the Effectiveness of Property Institutions : Conceptual Background and Evidence from 85 Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11100, The World Bank.
    9. Heiner Mikosch & Christopher Roth & Samad Sarferaz & Johannes Wohlfart, 2024. "Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 375-405, April.
    10. Matias Giaccobasso & Brad Nathan & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Alejandro Zentner, 2025. "Where Do My Tax Dollars Go? Tax Morale Effects of Perceived Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 223-259, October.
    11. Lawrence Kryzanowski & Yanting Wu & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Conflicts of interest and agent heterogeneity in buyer brokerage," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 130-169, January.
    12. Organ, Paul R. & Ruda, Alex & Slemrod, Joel & Turk, Alex, 2022. "Incentive effects of the IRS’ passport certification and revocation process," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    13. Ulrike Malmendier & Alexandra Steiny Wellsjo, 2024. "Rent or Buy? Inflation Experiences and Homeownership within and across Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1977-2023, June.
    14. Ingar Haaland & Ole-Andreas Elvik Næss & Ingar K. Haaland, 2023. "Misperceived Returns to Active Investing," CESifo Working Paper Series 10257, CESifo.
    15. Vod Vilfort & Whitney Zhang, 2023. "Interpreting TSLS Estimators in Information Provision Experiments," Papers 2309.04793, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    16. Rüdiger Weber & Annika Weber & Christine Laudenbach & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," CEBI working paper series 21-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    17. Daryl Fairweather & Matthew E. Kahn & Robert D. Metcalfe & Sebastian Sandoval Olascoaga, 2024. "Expecting Climate Change: A Nationwide Field Experiment in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 33119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Pahontu, Raluca L., 2022. "Divisive jobs: three facets of risk, precarity, and redistribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111593, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Kuang, Pei & Luca, Davide & Wei, Zhiwu, 2025. "Ballots, Budgets and Bricks: Brexit and the Polarisation of Individual Economic Behaviours," MPRA Paper 125104, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Antonio Gargano & Marco Giacoletti & Elvis Jarnecic, 2023. "Local Experiences, Search, and Spillovers in the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 1015-1053, April.
    21. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 128, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    22. Gioia M. Mariani & Eleonora Porreca & Concetta Rondinelli, 2025. "How do households adjust house price expectations in an era of high inflation? Experimental evidence," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 940, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Kiesl-Reiter, Sarah, 2024. "Subjective Expectations about Joint Return Distributions," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302423, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    24. Botelho Azevedo, Alda & Gonçalves, Inês & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2025. "Can’t Buy Me Home: Beliefs, Facts, and Policy in the Housing Affordability Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 18073, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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