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Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Christine Laudenbach

    (Department of Economics, University of Bonn)

  • Annika Weber

    (House of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt and SAFE)

  • Johannes Wohlfart

    (Department of Economics and CEBI, University of Copenhagen, CESifo, Danish Finance Institute)

Abstract

We survey retail investors at an online bank to study beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate stock returns, and how these beliefs shape investment decisions measured in administrative account data. Individuals' beliefs exhibit substantial heterogeneity and predict trading responses to market movements. We inform a random half of our respondents that historically the autocorrelation of aggregate returns was close to zero, which persistently changes their beliefs. Among those initially believing in mean reversion, treated respondents buy significantly less equity during the COVID-19 crash four months later. Our results highlight how heterogeneity in subjective models causally drives trade in asset markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 128, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:128
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    File URL: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkdps/ECONtribute_128_2021.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kai Barron & Tilman Fries, 2023. "Narrative Persuasion," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 469, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    2. Heiner Mikosch & Christopher Roth & Samad Sarferaz & Johannes Wohlfart, 2024. "Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 375-405, April.
    3. Alistair Macaulay & James Moberly, 2022. "Heterogeneity in imperfect inflation expectations:theory and evidence from a novel survey," Economics Series Working Papers 970, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Rieger, Marc O. & Wang, Mei & Phan, Thuy Chung & Gong, Yujing, 2022. "Trend following or reversal: Does culture affect predictions and trading behavior?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Müller, Lara Marie & Harrs, Sören & Rockenbach, Bettina, 2022. "How Narratives Impact Financial Behavior - Experimental Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264089, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Peter Haan & Chen Sun & Uwe Sunde & Georg Weizsäcker, 2022. "Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2027, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Christine Laudenbach & Michael Ungeheuer & Martin Weber, 2023. "How to Alleviate Correlation Neglect in Investment Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3400-3414, June.
    8. Tiziano Ropele & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "Inflation Expectations and Corporate Borrowing Decisions: New Causal Evidence," NBER Working Papers 30537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alistair Macaulay, 2022. "Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9733, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectation Formation; Information; Updating; Retail Investors; Trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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