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Public Debt and Household Inflation Expectations

Author

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  • Mr. Francesco Grigoli
  • Mr. Damiano Sandri

Abstract

We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects and that the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt is considerably higher for women and low-income individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2023. "Public Debt and Household Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2023/066, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/066
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonam, Dennis & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pacheco, Mariana Montserrat Cerra, 2025. "The fiscal sources of euro area inflation through the lens of the Bernanke-Blanchard model," Working Paper Series 3153, European Central Bank.
    2. Massimo Bordignon & Nicolò Gatti & Gilberto Turati, 2025. "Are Citizens Willing to Reduce Public Debt? Beliefs, Information and Policy Preferences," CESifo Working Paper Series 12013, CESifo.
    3. Jan Behringer & Lena Draeger & Sebastian Dullien & Sebastian Gechert, 2024. "News and Views on Public Finances: A Survey Experiment," IMK Working Paper 223-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Nie, He & Yao, Jiarui & Wang, Haoan, 2025. "The real cost channel and the Phillips Curve for China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    5. Kronick, Jeremy & Petersen, Luba, 2025. "Is monetary and fiscal policy conflict that dire?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    6. Myungkyu Shim & Kwang Hwan Kim & Myunghwan Andrew Lee & Sangyup Choi & Siye Bae & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2026. "The Effects of Fiscal News on Household Expectations and Spending: New Causal Evidence," NBER Working Papers 35009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Boris Hofmann & Ko Munakata & Tom Rosewall & Damiano Sandri, 2025. "Completing the post-pandemic landing," BIS Bulletins 97, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Mengus, Eric & Mönch, Emanuel & Gautier, Erwan & Andrade, Philippe, 2025. "Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance," HEC Research Papers Series 1603, HEC Paris, revised 25 Mar 2025.
    9. McClung, Nigel, 2025. "Why should fiscal imbalances concern policymakers at independent inflation-targeting central banks?," BoF Economics Review 4/2025, Bank of Finland.
    10. Piotr Misztal, 2026. "Exploring the Relationship Between Public Debt and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 134-149.
    11. Sandri, Damiano & Grigoli, Francesco & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Coibion, Olivier, 2023. "Keep Calm and Bank On: Panic-Driven Bank Runs and the Role of Public Communication," CEPR Discussion Papers 18448, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pesso, Tom, 2024. "Fiscal policy and inflation: accounting for non-linearities in government debt," Working Paper Series 2996, European Central Bank.
    13. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202426 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Francesco D'Acunto & Fiorella De Fiore & Damiano Sandri & Michael Weber, 2025. "A global survey of household perceptions and expectations," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    15. Siye Bae & Sangyup Choi & Sang-Hyun Kim & Myunghwan Andrew Lee & Myungkyu Shim, 2025. "Can We Anchor Macroeconomic Expectations Across Party Lines? Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," Working papers 2025rwp-255, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    16. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Casiraghi, Marco & Gelos, Gaston & Harrison, Olamide & Kamber, Gunes, 2024. "Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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