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The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions

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  • Saten Kumar
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Olivier Coibion

Abstract

Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some firms. The effects on their decisions relative to their initial plans as well as relative to an untreated control group are measured in a follow-up survey six months later. We find that as firms become more uncertain, they reduce their prices, employment, and investment, their sales decline, and they become less likely to invest in new technologies or open new facilities. These ex-post effects of uncertainty are similar to how firms say they would respond to higher uncertainty when asked hypothetical questions.

Suggested Citation

  • Saten Kumar & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions," NBER Working Papers 30288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30288
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    Cited by:

    1. Carl-Christian Groh, 2024. "Big Data and Inequality," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_555, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2024. "How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "Uncertainty of supply chains: Risk and ambiguity," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 2009-2033, May.
    4. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Yin, Xiao, 2024. "Higher-Order Beliefs and Risky Asset Holdings," IZA Discussion Papers 17120, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Vod Vilfort & Whitney Zhang, 2023. "Interpreting TSLS Estimators in Information Provision Experiments," Papers 2309.04793, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    6. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
    7. Fei Xu & Xingyu Zhu & Mingke Li, 2024. "Environmental, Social, and Governance Information Rating and Firm Uncertainty Perception, Evidence from China Listed Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-16, July.
    8. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2023. "Price Setting of Firms under Cost Uncertainty," Discussion papers 23040, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Ursel Baumann & Annalisa Ferrando & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Timo Reinelt, 2024. "SAFE to Update Inflation Expectations? New Survey Evidence on Euro Area Firms," NBER Working Papers 32504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kazakis, Pantelis, 2023. "Uncertainty and Market Power: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 117914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2022. "Firms' Knightian Uncertainty during the COVID-19 Crisis," Discussion papers 22089, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Weber, Michael & Candia, Bernardo & Ropele, Tiziano & Lluberas, Rodrigo & Frache, Serafin & Meyer, Brent & Kumar, Saten & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Coibion, Olivier & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Tell Me Something I don't Already Know: Learning in Low and High-inflation Settings," CEPR Discussion Papers 18299, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Azqueta-Gavaldón, Andrés & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2023. "Sources of Economic Policy Uncertainty in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    14. Damjan Pfajfar & Fabian Winkler, 2024. "Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics

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