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The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions

Author

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  • Kumar, Saten

    (Auckland University of Technology)

  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Coibion, Olivier

    (University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some firms. The effects on their decisions relative to their initial plans as well as relative to an untreated control group are measured in a follow-up survey six months later. We find that as firms become more uncertain, they reduce their prices, employment, and investment, their sales decline, and they become less likely to invest in new technologies or open new facilities. These ex-post effects of uncertainty are similar to how firms say they would respond to higher uncertainty when asked hypothetical questions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumar, Saten & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Coibion, Olivier, 2022. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions," IZA Discussion Papers 15449, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15449
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vod Vilfort & Whitney Zhang, 2023. "Interpreting IV Estimators in Information Provision Experiments," Papers 2309.04793, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    2. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2023. "Price Setting of Firms under Cost Uncertainty," Discussion papers 23040, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Kazakis, Pantelis, 2023. "Uncertainty and Market Power: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 117914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2022. "Firms' Knightian Uncertainty during the COVID-19 Crisis," Discussion papers 22089, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Weber, Michael & Candia, Bernardo & Ropele, Tiziano & Lluberas, Rodrigo & Frache, Serafin & Meyer, Brent & Kumar, Saten & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Coibion, Olivier & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation Settings," IZA Discussion Papers 16305, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Azqueta-Gavaldón, Andrés & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2023. "Sources of Economic Policy Uncertainty in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J., 2023. "Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-714, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty; firm decisions; surveys; randomized control trial;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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