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Public debt and household inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Grigoli
  • Damiano Sandri

Abstract

We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects and that the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt is considerably higher for women and low-income individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Grigoli & Damiano Sandri, 2023. "Public debt and household inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 1082, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1082
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Bordignon & Nicolò Gatti & Gilberto Turati, 2025. "Are citizens willing to reduce public debt? Beliefs, information and policy preferences," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def144, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Kronick, Jeremy & Petersen, Luba, 2025. "Is monetary and fiscal policy conflict that dire?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    3. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pesso, Tom, 2024. "Fiscal policy and inflation: accounting for non-linearities in government debt," Working Paper Series 2996, European Central Bank.
    4. Bonam, Dennis & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pacheco, Mariana Montserrat Cerra, 2025. "The fiscal sources of euro area inflation through the lens of the Bernanke-Blanchard model," Working Paper Series 3153, European Central Bank.
    5. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202426 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Behringer, Jan & Dräger, Lena & Dullien, Sebastian & Gechert, Sebastian, 2024. "News and Views on Public Finances: A Survey Experiment," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-715, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    7. Boris Hofmann & Ko Munakata & Tom Rosewall & Damiano Sandri, 2025. "Completing the post-pandemic landing," BIS Bulletins 97, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Nie, He & Yao, Jiarui & Wang, Haoan, 2025. "The real cost channel and the Phillips Curve for China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    9. Damiano Sandri & Francesco Grigoli & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "Keep Calm and Bank On: Panic-Driven Bank Runs and the Role of Public Communication," NBER Working Papers 31644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Siye Bae & Sangyup Choi & Sang-Hyun Kim & Myunghwan Andrew Lee & Myungkyu Shim, 2025. "Can We Anchor Macroeconomic Expectations Across Party Lines? Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," Working papers 2025rwp-255, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    11. Francesco D'Acunto & Fiorella De Fiore & Damiano Sandri & Michael Weber, 2025. "A global survey of household perceptions and expectations," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    12. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Casiraghi, Marco & Gelos, Gaston & Harrison, Olamide & Kamber, Gunes, 2024. "Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. Philippe Andrade & Erwan Gautier & Eric Mengus & Emanuel Moench, 2025. "Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance," Working Papers 25-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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