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News and Views on Public Finances: A Survey Experiment

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  • Behringer, Jan
  • Dräger, Lena
  • Dullien, Sebastian
  • Gechert, Sebastian

Abstract

We use novel German survey data to investigate how perceptions and information about public finances influence attitudes towards public debt and fiscal rules. On average, people strongly underestimate the debt-to-GDP ratio, overestimate the interest-to-tax-revenue ratio and favor a tighter German debt brake. In an information treatment experiment, people consider public debt to be a more (less) severe problem once they learn the actual debt-to-GDP or interest-to-tax-revenue ratio is higher (lower) than their estimates. However, the treatment effects partly vanish when anchoring respondents' beliefs with historical public debt figures. We find no treatment effects on attitudes towards the debt brake.

Suggested Citation

  • Behringer, Jan & Dräger, Lena & Dullien, Sebastian & Gechert, Sebastian, 2024. "News and Views on Public Finances: A Survey Experiment," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-715, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-715
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco Grigoli & Damiano Sandri, 2023. "Public debt and household inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 1082, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Roth, Christopher & Settele, Sonja & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Beliefs about public debt and the demand for government spending," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 165-187.
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    6. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2021. "Understanding Tax Policy: How do People Reason?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2309-2369.
    7. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; fiscal rules; information treatment; expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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