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A global survey of household perceptions and expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco D'Acunto
  • Fiorella De Fiore
  • Damiano Sandri
  • Michael Weber

Abstract

The article introduces a novel survey of household economic perceptions and expectations conducted across 31 economies in March and April 2025. Household inflation expectations are elevated, exceeding prevailing inflation rates and professional forecasts. Households recognise that prices have increased faster in the post-pandemic period compared with earlier years and overestimate losses in real wages. Perceptions of the inflation surge appear to be lifting inflation expectations, suggesting that temporary price level increases can have persistent effects on expectations. Households generally do not hold central banks responsible for the inflation surge and support their independence. Knowledge of central banks remains limited in an environment where social media have become an important information source. Informed households tend to have more anchored inflation expectations, underscoring the importance of effective communication strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco D'Acunto & Fiorella De Fiore & Damiano Sandri & Michael Weber, 2025. "A global survey of household perceptions and expectations," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2509c
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    2. Rupal Kamdar, 2019. "The Inattentive Consumer: Sentiment and Expectations," 2019 Meeting Papers 647, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2023. "Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2131-2171.
    4. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    5. Grigoli, Francesco & Sandri, Damiano, 2024. "Public debt and household inflation expectations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2017. "An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 51-72.
    7. Francesco D'Acunto & Michael Weber, 2024. "Why Survey-Based Subjective Expectations Are Meaningful and Important," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 329-357, August.
    8. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
    9. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2021. "Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1615-1639.
    10. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    11. Boris Hofmann & Ko Munakata & Tom Rosewall & Damiano Sandri, 2025. "Completing the post-pandemic landing," BIS Bulletins 97, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    13. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. David J Hofman & Ms. Julia Otten & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha & Zoe Strauss, 2023. "Do Household Expectations Help Predict Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 2023/224, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Sreyoshi Das & Camelia M Kuhnen & Stefan Nagel, 2020. "Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 395-432.
    15. D'Acunto, Francesco & Charalambakis, Evangelos & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff & Meyer, Justus & Weber, Michael, 2024. "Household Inflation Expectations: An Overview of Recent Insights for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 19167, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dräger, Lena & Marencak, Michal & Nghiem, Giang & Paloviita, Maritta, 2026. "Heterogeneity in Consumers' Economic Expectations across Euro Area Countries," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-747, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    2. Tjantana Barro & Michal Marencak & Giang Nghiem, 2026. "The Green Transition and Households’ Macroeconomic Expectations: A Survey Experiment," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2026, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    3. Leonardo Gambacorta & Enisse Kharroubi & Emanuel Kohlscheen & Ko Munakata, 2025. "Labour markets at a crossroads: softening trends amid elevated uncertainty," BIS Bulletins 112, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Jessica Piccolo & Alessia Russo & Eleonora Granziera & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2025. "Households’ Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0316, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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