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Labour markets at a crossroads: softening trends amid elevated uncertainty

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  • Leonardo Gambacorta
  • Enisse Kharroubi
  • Emanuel Kohlscheen
  • Ko Munakata

Abstract

Labour market conditions in emerging market economies remain broadly stable, but unemployment in several advanced economies is edging up, and forward-looking indicators point to further weakening. Cyclical forces partly explain these developments, but longer-term structural forces are also at play, including deregulation and demographic pressures (ageing, migration, participation of older workers). Weaker labour markets may weigh on output, especially in the absence of productivity gains. In some emerging market economies, tighter conditions and stronger wage-price pass-through could raise the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations.

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  • Leonardo Gambacorta & Enisse Kharroubi & Emanuel Kohlscheen & Ko Munakata, 2025. "Labour markets at a crossroads: softening trends amid elevated uncertainty," BIS Bulletins 112, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco D'Acunto & Fiorella De Fiore & Damiano Sandri & Michael Weber, 2025. "A global survey of household perceptions and expectations," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    2. Staubli, Stefan & Zweimüller, Josef, 2013. "Does raising the early retirement age increase employment of older workers?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 17-32.
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