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What information is important for households’ inflation expectations: evidence from a randomized controlled trial

Author

Listed:
  • Vadim Grishchenko

    (Bank of Russia,Higher School of Economics, Russian Federation)

  • Maria Lymar

    (Bank of Russia, MSU, Russian Federation)

  • Andrei Sinyakov

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

In theory, the anchoring of household inflation expectations contributes a lot to the success of inflation targeting, since inflation expectations may significantly influence consumer and financial decisions. In this paper, we estimate the causal relationship between information and the inflation expectations of Russian households using a randomized controlled trial (RCT) approach applied to the data of the 6th wave of the Survey of Consumer Finance (2024). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of this kind based on Russian data. According to our estimates, direct, quantitative estimates of future inflation are more sensitive to incoming information. Respondents react most strongly to the treatment about growth in the money supply in the previous year, adjusting their inflation expectations upwards. At the same time, as opposed to research based on data from other countries, we find no relationship between information about inflation in the past year or about the central bank's target and its success in inflation targeting, on the one hand, and household inflation expectations, on the other. This means that monetary policy should react more strongly to pro-inflationary shocks to achieve the target. Actions, not words, matter the most.

Suggested Citation

  • Vadim Grishchenko & Maria Lymar & Andrei Sinyakov, 2025. "What information is important for households’ inflation expectations: evidence from a randomized controlled trial," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps148, Bank of Russia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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