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How to Limit the Spillover from an Inflation Surge to Inflation Expectations?

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  • Dräger, Lena
  • Lamla, Michael J.
  • Damjan, Pfajfar

Abstract

Using a randomized control trial on German consumers we show that information about rising inflation increases inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated by providing forecasts of inflation. Information about (future) inflation affects the whole term structure of inflation expectations, where the effects are smaller for longer-run expectations. This information also causes changes in consumption and savings decisions. In subsequent months-when consumers realize that inflation is much higher than the provided forecast-|they reverse the reliance on information about inflation forecasts and rely again more on their initial priors.

Suggested Citation

  • Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Damjan, Pfajfar, 2023. "How to Limit the Spillover from an Inflation Surge to Inflation Expectations?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-694, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-694
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    Cited by:

    1. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
    2. Dräger, Lena, 2023. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-713, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    3. Dräger, Lena & Nghiem, Giang, 2023. "Inflation Literacy, Inflation Expectations, and Trust in the Central Bank: A Survey Experiment," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-709, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    4. Baumann, Ursel & Ferrando, Annalisa & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Reinelt, Timo, 2024. "SAFE to Update Inflation Expectations? New Survey Evidence on Euro Area Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 19161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Afunts, Geghetsik & Cato, Misina & Schmidt, Tobias, 2023. "Inflation Expectations in the Wake of the War in Ukraine," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277577, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Lena Dräger & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2022. "Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine," ifo Working Paper Series 371, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short-run and long-run inflation expectations; inflation surge; randomized control trial; survey experiment; persistent or transitory inflation shock.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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