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The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations

Author

Listed:
  • Martha Elena Delgado Rojas
  • Juan Herreño
  • Marc Hofstetter
  • Mathieu Pedemonte

Abstract

We construct a novel measure of one-year-ahead exchange rate forecasts and nowcasts for non-financial firms. We then study a randomized information intervention that provides a subset of firms with a publicly available exchange rate forecast. This information treatment persistently shifts exchange rate expectations and perceptions, with stronger effects for non-exporting firms. We link survey responses with administrative customs data and estimate a positive intertemporal elasticity of import demand to exogenous changes in expected future exchange rates. Our findings highlight the role of intertemporal substitution after anticipated changes in trade costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Elena Delgado Rojas & Juan Herreño & Marc Hofstetter & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2026. "The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations," NBER Working Papers 35175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35175
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Okan Akarsu & Emrehan Aktug & Huzeyfe Torun, 2025. "Inflation Expectations and Firms' Decisions in High Inflation: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," Working Papers 2512, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Mishel Ghassibe & Boromeus Wanengkirtyo & Ivan Yotzov, 2025. "Intertemporal Pass-Through," Working Papers 1524, Barcelona School of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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