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Peer Effects in Macroeconomic Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Dräger, Lena
  • Gründler, Klaus
  • Potrafke, Niklas

Abstract

Social interactions affect individual behavior in a variety of ways, but their effects on expectation formation are less well understood. We design a large-scale global survey experiment among renowned experts working in 135 countries to study whether peer effects impact expectations about the macroeconomy. The global setting allows us to exploit rich cross-national variation in macroeconomic fundamentals. Our experiment uncovers sizable effects of peers and shows that peer information also shifts monetary policy recommendations of experts. The results have important implications for the design of policies and models of information acquisition.

Suggested Citation

  • Dräger, Lena & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "Peer Effects in Macroeconomic Expectations," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-739, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-739
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; belief formation; peer effects; survey experiment; economic experts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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