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Subjective inflation expectations of households

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  • Michael Weber

    (University of Chicago Booth School of Business)

Abstract

Inflation expectations of households and firms are central determinants in all dynamic macro models. Yet, empirical evidence suggests these decision makers form expectations in a way that deviates from the assumptions in these models: on average, inflation expectations are biased upwards, are substantially dispersed across individuals, and co-move strongly with the prices of selected goods such as milk or gas. In this article, I discuss several stylized facts on subjective inflation expectations, their determinants, and how inflation expectations shape individuals’ consumption, savings, and investment decisions. Finally, I review the recent literature on how central banks should communicate with the general public and highlight the role of the policy message, the messenger, and the medium, for the effectiveness of central bank communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Weber, 2022. "Subjective inflation expectations of households," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 217-221, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:57:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1057_s11369-022-00295-y
    DOI: 10.1057/s11369-022-00295-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber, 2022. "Managing Households’ Expectations with Unconventional Policies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 1597-1642.
    2. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    4. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2019. "Cognitive Abilities and Inflation Expectations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 562-566, May.
    5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    6. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2021. "Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1615-1639.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schnorpfeil, Philip & Weber, Michael & Hackethal, Andreas, 2023. "Households' response to the wealth effects of inflation," SAFE Working Paper Series 400, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2023. "Undesired Consequences of Calvo Pricing in a Non-linear World," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    3. Ignacio Galará, 2023. "A Measure of our Uncertainty: Households’ Inflation Expectation and Information Shocks," Working Papers 273, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    4. Michal Marencak, 2023. "State-dependent inflation expectations and consumption choices," Working and Discussion Papers WP 10/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    5. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Rationality and biases insights from disaggregated firm level inflation expectations data," Working Papers 11050, South African Reserve Bank.
    6. Lena Dräger & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2022. "Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine," ifo Working Paper Series 371, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Ethan Struby & Christina Farhart, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Political Polarization: Evidence from the Cooperative Election Study," Working Papers 2024-01, Carleton College, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intertemporal choice; Consumption; Savings; Surveys; Monetary and Fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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