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Inflation Expectations and Political Polarization: Evidence from the Cooperative Election Study

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  • Ethan Struby

    (Carleton College)

  • Christina Farhart

    (Carleton College)

Abstract

Using a unique, nationally representative survey from the 2022 midterm elections, we investigate the partisan divide in beliefs about inflation and monetary policy. We find that party identity is predictive of inflation forecasts even after conditioning on beliefs about both past inflation and the Federal Reserve’s long-run inflation target. Partisan forecast differences are driven by respondents who express low generalized trust in others and have a high degree of political knowledge; high-trust and lowknowledge partisans make similar forecasts all else equal. This finding is consistent with the literature in political psychology that examines the endorsement of conspiracy theories and political misinformation. We argue that the partisan divide in consumer inflation surveys is consistent with strategic responses by partisans.

Suggested Citation

  • Ethan Struby & Christina Farhart, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Political Polarization: Evidence from the Cooperative Election Study," Working Papers 2024-01, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:avv:wpaper:2024-01
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    File URL: https://digitalcommons.carleton.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1019&context=econ_repec
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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