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Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low- and High-Inflation Settings

Author

Listed:
  • Bernardo Candia
  • Olivier Coibion
  • Serafin Frache
  • Dmitris Georgarakos
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Geoff Kenny
  • Saten Kumar
  • Rodrigo Lluberas
  • Brent Meyer
  • Tiziano Ropele
  • Michael Weber

Abstract

Using randomized control trials (RCT) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has risen in developed economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. This observation holds for both firms and households. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Serafin Frache & Dmitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Geoff Kenny & Saten Kumar & Rodrigo Lluberas & Brent Meyer & Tiziano Ropele & Michael Weber, 2023. "Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low- and High-Inflation Settings," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:96613
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2023-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Attention to the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 18699, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Schnorpfeil & Michael Weber & Andreas Hackethal & Michael Weber, 2023. "Households’ Response to the Wealth Effects of Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10648, CESifo.
    2. Oliver Pfauti, 2023. "The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges," Papers 2308.09480, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    3. Schnorpfeil, Philip & Weber, Michael & Hackethal, Andreas, 2024. "Inflation and trading," SAFE Working Paper Series 419, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Daria Minina & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2024. "The effect of information on consumer inflation expectations," Working Papers 810, DNB.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inattention; RCTs; inflation expectation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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