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Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low- and High-Inflation Settings

Author

Listed:
  • Bernardo Candia
  • Olivier Coibion
  • Serafin Frache
  • Dmitris Georgarakos
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Geoff Kenny
  • Saten Kumar
  • Rodrigo Lluberas
  • Brent Meyer
  • Tiziano Ropele
  • Michael Weber

Abstract

Using randomized control trials (RCT) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has risen in developed economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. This observation holds for both firms and households. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Serafin Frache & Dmitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Geoff Kenny & Saten Kumar & Rodrigo Lluberas & Brent Meyer & Tiziano Ropele & Michael Weber, 2023. "Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low- and High-Inflation Settings," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:96613
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2023-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    3. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Maarten van Rooij, 2023. "How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 109-152, July.
    5. Felix Chopra & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 233, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
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    9. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    10. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar & Jane Ryngaert, 2021. "Do You Know that I Know that You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(3), pages 1387-1446.
    11. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2022. "Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a new consumer survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 1-14.
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    13. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    14. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
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    16. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2020. "Effective Policy Communication: Targets versus Instruments," Working Papers 2020-148, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
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    19. Fajardo, José & Dantas, Manuela, 2018. "Understanding the impact of severe hyperinflation experience on current household investment behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 60-67.
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    Cited by:

    1. Schnorpfeil, Philip & Weber, Michael & Hackethal, Andreas, 2023. "Households' response to the wealth effects of inflation," SAFE Working Paper Series 400, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Oliver Pfauti, 2023. "The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges," Papers 2308.09480, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inattention; RCTs; inflation expectation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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