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First-order and higher-order inflation expectations: Evidence about Households and Firms

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  • Kieren, Pascal
  • König-Kersting, Christian
  • Schmidt, Robert
  • Trautmann, Stefan
  • Heinicke, Franziska

Abstract

We study the relationship between first-order and higher-order inflation expectations. Using two novel survey modules of German households and firms, we establish several new insights on the relation between different orders of beliefs. While our results are remarkably consistent for households and firm managers, they exhibit relevant differences to previous results documented in the literature. Most importantly, our results show that uncertainty aggregates when individuals think about the beliefs of others relative to their own beliefs. We derive implications for calibrating noisy information models with infinite regress and discuss potential sources for differences in results documented in the literature and their theoretical implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Kieren, Pascal & König-Kersting, Christian & Schmidt, Robert & Trautmann, Stefan & Heinicke, Franziska, 2025. "First-order and higher-order inflation expectations: Evidence about Households and Firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:233:y:2025:i:c:s0167268125001088
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106988
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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