IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2510.21959.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Beliefs about Bots: How Employers Plan for AI in White-Collar Work

Author

Listed:
  • Eduard Brull
  • Samuel Maurer
  • Davud Rostam-Afschar

Abstract

We provide experimental evidence on how employers adjust expectations to automation risk in high-skill, white-collar work. Using a randomized information intervention among tax advisors in Germany, we show that firms systematically underestimate automatability. Information provision raises risk perceptions, especially for routine-intensive roles. Yet, it leaves short-run hiring plans unchanged. Instead, updated beliefs increase productivity and financial expectations with minor wage adjustments, implying within-firm inequality like limited rent-sharing. Employers also anticipate new tasks in legal tech, compliance, and AI interaction, and report higher training and adoption intentions.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduard Brull & Samuel Maurer & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2025. "Beliefs about Bots: How Employers Plan for AI in White-Collar Work," Papers 2510.21959, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2510.21959
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.21959
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Kline & Neviana Petkova & Heidi Williams & Owen Zidar, 2019. "Who Profits from Patents? Rent-Sharing at Innovative Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1343-1404.
    2. Michael Weber & Bernardo Candia & Hassan Afrouzi & Tiziano Ropele & Rodrigo Lluberas & Serafin Frache & Brent Meyer & Saten Kumar & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Dimitris Georgarakos & Olivier Coibion & Geoff, 2025. "Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low‐ and High‐Inflation Settings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(1), pages 229-264, January.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    5. Davud Rostam‐Afschar & Kristina Strohmaier, 2019. "Does Regulation Trade Off Quality against Inequality? The Case of German Architects and Construction Engineers," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 870-893, December.
    6. Manuel Menkhoff, 2025. "Belief Updating and AI Adoption: Experimental Evidence from Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 12291, CESifo.
    7. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Determinants of College Major Choice: Identification using an Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 791-824.
    8. Jannis Bischof & Philipp Doerrenberg & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Dirk Simons & Johannes Voget, 2025. "The German Business Panel: Firm-Level Data for Accounting and Taxation Research," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 1499-1527, August.
    9. Innocenti, Stefania & Golin, Marta, 2022. "Human capital investment and perceived automation risks: Evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 27-41.
    10. Jeffrey, Karen, 2021. "Automation and the future of work: How rhetoric shapes the response in policy preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 417-433.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philipp Lergetporer & Katharina Wedel & Katharina Werner, 2023. "Automatability of Occupations, Workers’ Labor-Market Expectations, and Willingness to Train," CESifo Working Paper Series 10862, CESifo.
    2. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Fernández, Gastón P. & Rammer, Christian, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and firm-level productivity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 188-205.
    3. Medina, J.P. & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2024. "Heterogeneous inflation expectations: A call for customized monetary policy communication?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Grewenig, Elisabeth & Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2022. "Incentives, search engines, and the elicitation of subjective beliefs: Evidence from representative online survey experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 304-326.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Claire Lelarge & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 383-388, May.
    6. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
    7. Dräger, Lena & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "Peer Effects in Macroeconomic Expectations," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-739, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    8. Yang, Jia & Pei, Yu & Qiang, Wei, 2024. "The impact of automation on human capital investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    9. Hoffmann, Mathias & Mönch, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2025. "A KISS for central bank communication in times of high inflation," ZEW Discussion Papers 25-031, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Andreas Fuster & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Mirko Wiederholt & Basit Zafar, 2022. "Expectations with Endogenous Information Acquisition: An Experimental Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1059-1078, December.
    11. Hanna Brosch & Philipp Lergetporer & Florian Schoner, 2025. "Worker Beliefs about Firm Training," Munich Papers in Political Economy 44, Munich School of Politics and Public Policy and the School of Management at the Technical University of Munich.
    12. Hennessy, David A., 2025. "Information as a catalyst for industrialization," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    13. Golin, M. & Rauh, C., 2022. "The Impact of Fear of Automation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2269, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Hanna Brosch & Philipp Lergetporer & Florian Schoner, 2025. "Worker Beliefs About Firm Training," CESifo Working Paper Series 12183, CESifo.
    15. Helena Antonie Baier & Philipp Lergetporer & Thomas Rittmannsberger, 2025. "Firms’ expectations about skill shortages," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 1095-1112, August.
    16. Jeffrey, Karen & Matakos, Konstantinos, 2024. "Automation anxiety, fairness perceptions, and redistribution: Past experiences condition the response to future job loss," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 174-190.
    17. Daron Acemoglu & Alex He & Daniel le Maire, 2022. "Eclipse of Rent-Sharing: The Effects of Managers' Business Education on Wages and the Labor Share in the US and Denmark," NBER Working Papers 29874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 345-358.
    19. Del Bono, Emilia & Etheridge, Ben & Garcia, Paul, 2024. "The economic value of childhood socio-emotional skills," ISER Working Paper Series 2024-01, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    20. Sylvie Blasco, 2022. "Replaced or depressed? The effect of automation risk on workers' mental health," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 09, Stata Users Group.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2510.21959. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.