IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/bisblt/104.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Household perceptions and expectations in the wake of the inflation surge: survey evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Fiorella De Fiore
  • Damiano Sandri
  • James Yetman

Abstract

A novel international survey across 29 advanced and emerging market economies reveals that household inflation expectations remain elevated, despite inflation rates approaching targets. Perceptions of significant price hikes post-pandemic tend to feed into higher household inflation expectations, pointing to the risk of a lasting impact of temporary inflation bursts. Households with greater knowledge of central banks and their price stability mandates report lower inflation expectations. Therefore, central bank communications can help improve the public's understanding of central banks and foster the anchoring of inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiorella De Fiore & Damiano Sandri & James Yetman, 2025. "Household perceptions and expectations in the wake of the inflation surge: survey evidence," BIS Bulletins 104, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull104.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull104.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Weber & Bernardo Candia & Hassan Afrouzi & Tiziano Ropele & Rodrigo Lluberas & Serafin Frache & Brent Meyer & Saten Kumar & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Dimitris Georgarakos & Olivier Coibion & Geoff, 2025. "Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low‐ and High‐Inflation Settings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(1), pages 229-264, January.
    2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    3. Jessica Piccolo & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2025. "Homeownership and Attention to Inflation: Evidence from Information Treatments," NBER Working Papers 33595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    5. Pei Kuang & Michael Weber & Shihan Xie & Michael Weber, 2025. "Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public," CESifo Working Paper Series 11708, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Go Fujii & Shogo Nakano & Kosuke Takatomi, 2025. "Households' Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations Formation: The Role of Past Experience and Inflation Regimes," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 25-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    2. Vladimir Ivanov & Elena Nikishina, 2025. "Applying Behavioural Economics to Promote Financial Literate Behaviour: An Overview of Studies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 84(2), pages 89-112, June.
    3. Trung X. Hoang & Nga V. T. Le, 2021. "Natural disasters and risk aversion: Evidence from Vietnam," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(3), pages 211-229, August.
    4. Heineck, Guido & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2013. "A different look at Lenin’s legacy: Social capital and risk taking in the Two Germanies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 789-803.
    5. Insoo Cho & Peter F. Orazem, 2021. "How endogenous risk preferences and sample selection affect analysis of firm survival," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1309-1332, April.
    6. John Y. Campbell, 2016. "Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 1-30, May.
    7. Cardak, Buly A. & Martin, Vance L., 2023. "Household willingness to take financial risk: Stockmarket movements and life‐cycle effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Lee, Boram & Rosenthal, Leonard & Veld, Chris & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia, 2015. "Stock market expectations and risk aversion of individual investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 122-131.
    9. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2018. "How do consumers adapt to a new environment in their economic forecasting? Evidence from the German reunification," IMFS Working Paper Series 129, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    10. Gordon B. Dahl & Anne C. Gielen, 2021. "Intergenerational Spillovers in Disability Insurance," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 116-150, April.
    11. Ray C. Fair, 2024. "Inflation Expectations, Price Equations, and Fed Effects," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2401, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Borisova, Ekaterina & Gründler, Klaus & Hackenberger, Armin & Harter, Anina & Potrafke, Niklas & Schoors, Koen, 2023. "Crisis experience and the deep roots of COVID-19 vaccination preferences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    13. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2017. "Is stock investment contagious among siblings?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1505-1528, June.
    14. Goedde-Menke, Michael & Langer, Thomas & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2014. "Impact of the financial crisis on bank run risk – Danger of the days after," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 522-533.
    15. Choi, Eleanor Jawon & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Yi Fan, 2017. "Does Adversity Affect Long-Term Consumption and Financial Behaviour? Evidence from China's Rustication Programme," ERES eres2017_148, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    17. Niculaescu, Corina E. & Sangiorgi, Ivan & Bell, Adrian R., 2023. "Does personal experience with COVID-19 impact investment decisions? Evidence from a survey of US retail investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    18. Gunratan Lonare & Gene Lai & Sangyong Han & Chia‐Ling Ho, 2024. "CEO past distress experience and risk‐taking: Evidence from US property–liability insurance firms," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 5-39, April.
    19. Nicolas R. Ziebarth & Gert G. Wagner, 2013. "Top-down v. Bottom-up: The Long-Term Impact of Government Ideology and Personal Experience on Values," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1280, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Goytom Abraha Kahsay & Daniel Osberghaus, 2018. "Storm Damage and Risk Preferences: Panel Evidence from Germany," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(1), pages 301-318, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.