IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/bisblt/104.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Household perceptions and expectations in the wake of the inflation surge: survey evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Fiorella De Fiore
  • Damiano Sandri
  • James Yetman

Abstract

A novel international survey across 29 advanced and emerging market economies reveals that household inflation expectations remain elevated, despite inflation rates approaching targets. Perceptions of significant price hikes post-pandemic tend to feed into higher household inflation expectations, pointing to the risk of a lasting impact of temporary inflation bursts. Households with greater knowledge of central banks and their price stability mandates report lower inflation expectations. Therefore, central bank communications can help improve the public's understanding of central banks and foster the anchoring of inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiorella De Fiore & Damiano Sandri & James Yetman, 2025. "Household perceptions and expectations in the wake of the inflation surge: survey evidence," BIS Bulletins 104, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull104.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull104.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Weber & Bernardo Candia & Hassan Afrouzi & Tiziano Ropele & Rodrigo Lluberas & Serafin Frache & Brent Meyer & Saten Kumar & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Dimitris Georgarakos & Olivier Coibion & Geoff, 2025. "Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low‐ and High‐Inflation Settings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(1), pages 229-264, January.
    2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    3. Pei Kuang & Michael Weber & Shihan Xie, 2025. "Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public," NBER Working Papers 33524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jessica Piccolo & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2025. "Homeownership and Attention to Inflation: Evidence from Information Treatments," NBER Working Papers 33595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Dora Xia & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2025. "Macroeconomic impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty," BIS Bulletins 110, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jung, Alexander & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2025. "Central bank communication with non-experts: insights from a randomized field experiment," Working Paper Series 3103, European Central Bank.
    2. Hoffmann, Mathias & Mönch, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2025. "A KISS for central bank communication in times of high inflation," ZEW Discussion Papers 25-031, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Go Fujii & Shogo Nakano & Kosuke Takatomi, 2025. "Households' Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations Formation: The Role of Past Experience and Inflation Regimes," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 25-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    4. Vladimir Ivanov & Elena Nikishina, 2025. "Applying Behavioural Economics to Promote Financial Literate Behaviour: An Overview of Studies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 84(2), pages 89-112, June.
    5. Trung X. Hoang & Nga V. T. Le, 2021. "Natural disasters and risk aversion: Evidence from Vietnam," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(3), pages 211-229, August.
    6. John C. Williams, 2014. "Financial stability and monetary policy: happy marriage or untenable union?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Matthew J. Hill, 2014. "Easterlin revisted: Relative income and the baby boom," Economics Working Papers 1453, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    8. Heineck, Guido & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2013. "A different look at Lenin’s legacy: Social capital and risk taking in the Two Germanies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 789-803.
    9. Michael Bailey & Eduardo Dávila & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2019. "House Price Beliefs And Mortgage Leverage Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(6), pages 2403-2452.
    10. Insoo Cho & Peter F. Orazem, 2021. "How endogenous risk preferences and sample selection affect analysis of firm survival," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1309-1332, April.
    11. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 205-226.
    12. John Y. Campbell, 2016. "Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 1-30, May.
    13. Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2022. "Asset Pricing with Fading Memory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 2190-2245.
    14. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    15. Lee, Boram & Rosenthal, Leonard & Veld, Chris & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia, 2015. "Stock market expectations and risk aversion of individual investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 122-131.
    16. Cardak, Buly A. & Martin, Vance L., 2023. "Household willingness to take financial risk: Stockmarket movements and life‐cycle effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    17. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2018. "How do consumers adapt to a new environment in their economic forecasting? Evidence from the German reunification," IMFS Working Paper Series 129, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    18. Dimitris Georgarakos & Roman Inderst, 2011. "Financial Advice and Stock Market Participation," BCL working papers 51, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    19. Renuka Sane, 2017. "Stock market participation in the aftermath of an accounting scandal," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2017-006, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    20. Banerjee, Ritwik, 2018. "On the interpretation of World Values Survey trust question - Global expectations vs. local beliefs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 491-510.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.