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Inflation Expectations of the General Public under Supply Constraints: Evidence from a Survey Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Dzung Bui

    (Philipps-Universität Marburg, Marburg Center for Institutional Economics and Sustainability (MACIES))

  • Bernd Hayo

    (Philipps-Universität Marburg, Marburg Center for Institutional Economics and Sustainability (MACIES))

Abstract

This paper examines the causal effect of supply constraints on inflation expectations, using a survey experiment conducted with a representative sample of German adults. Respondents first reported their prior beliefs about both official and personal inflation. They were then presented with information about Germany's 2022 supply bottlenecks and randomly assigned to one of three hypothetical scenarios for 2025. Exposure to either shortage scenario significantly increased the likelihood of revising inflation expectations. Personal exposure to supply shortages in daily life and financial literacy also influenced how respondents revised expectations. A topic analysis of open-ended responses provides further insights into how people interpret and react to perceived product scarcity.

Suggested Citation

  • Dzung Bui & Bernd Hayo, 2025. "Inflation Expectations of the General Public under Supply Constraints: Evidence from a Survey Experiment," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202520, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202520
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    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/en/fb02/research-groups/economics/macroeconomics/research/magks-joint-discussion-papers-in-economics/papers/2025-papers/20-2025.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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