IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/iwhdps/319911.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global banks' macroeconomic expectations and credit supply

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Xiang
  • Ongena, Steven

Abstract

We investigate how global banks' macroeconomic expectations for borrower countries influence their credit supply. Utilizing granular data on varying expectations among banks lending to the same firm at the same time, combined with an instrumental variable approach, we find that more optimistic GDP growth expectations for a borrower country are strongly linked to increased credit supply. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in a lender's GDP growth expectation for the borrower's country corresponds to an increase of 8.46 percentage points in the loan share, equivalent to approximately 0.75 standard deviations of the loan share and $75.35 million in loan amount. In contrast, global banks' short-term inflation expectations do not show a significant impact on their credit supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xiang & Ongena, Steven, 2025. "Global banks' macroeconomic expectations and credit supply," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2025, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:319911
    DOI: 10.18717/dpehpr-1e45
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/319911/1/1929255047.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18717/dpehpr-1e45?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei Jiang, 2017. "Have Instrumental Variables Brought Us Closer to the Truth," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 127-140.
    2. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2024. "How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    4. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Di Giuli, Alberta & Laux, Paul A., 2022. "The effect of media-linked directors on financing and external governance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 103-131.
    2. Kleiner, Kristoph & Stoffman, Noah & Yonker, Scott E., 2021. "Friends with bankruptcy protection benefits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 578-605.
    3. Apoorva Lal & Mac Lockhart & Yiqing Xu & Ziwen Zu, 2023. "How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on Over 60 Replicated Studies," Papers 2303.11399, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    4. Martha Elena Delgado & Juan Herreño & Marc Hofstetter & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations," Working Papers 24-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Lambert, Thomas & Martín-Flores, José M. & Romec, Arthur, 2024. "Does democracy shape international merger activity?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Bo Li, 2024. "Testing Business Cycle Theories: Evidence from the Great Recession," Papers 2403.04104, arXiv.org.
    7. Attig, Najah & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Zheng, Xiaolan, 2021. "Dividends and economic policy uncertainty: International evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    9. Borja Larrain & Peter Roosenboom & Giorgo Sertsios & Francisco Urzúa, 2024. "Ownership Concentration and Firm Value: New Evidence from Owner Stakes in IPOs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(7), pages 4441-4464, July.
    10. Farzamfar, Arshia & Foroughi, Pouyan & Hamisheh Bahar, Hosein & Ng, Lilian, 2024. "Illuminating the murk: The effect of business complexity on voluntary disclosure," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Viacheslav Sheremirov & Oleksandr Talavera, 2018. "Price Setting in Online Markets: Does IT Click?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(6), pages 1764-1811.
    12. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Juan Passadore, 2017. "Are State- and Time-Dependent Models Really Different?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 379-457.
    13. Ilona Babenko & Benjamin Bennett & John M Bizjak & Jeffrey L Coles & Jason J Sandvik, 2023. "Clawback Provisions and Firm Risk," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 191-239.
    14. Joshy Easaw & Roberto Golinelli, 2022. "Professionals Inflation Forecasts: The Two Dimensions Of Forecaster Inattentiveness [“Sectoral and aggregate inflation dynamics in the euro area”]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 701-720.
    15. François R. Velde, 2009. "Chronicle of a Deflation Unforetold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(4), pages 591-634, August.
    16. Francesco Capozza & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Studying Information Acquisition in the Field: A Practical Guide and Review," CEBI working paper series 21-15, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    17. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2013. "Sector Specific News Shocks in Aggregate and Sectoral Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4269, CESifo.
    18. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    19. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Adrian Nicholas Gachet, 2022. "Help Me Help You? Populism and Distributive Politics in Ecuador," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2205, Economics, The University of Manchester.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:319911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwhhhde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.