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Global banks' macroeconomic expectations and credit supply

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  • Li, Xiang
  • Ongena, Steven

Abstract

We investigate how global banks' macroeconomic expectations for borrower countries influence their credit supply. Utilizing granular data on varying expectations among banks lending to the same firm at the same time, combined with an instrumental variable approach, we find that more optimistic GDP growth expectations for a borrower country are strongly linked to increased credit supply. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in a lender's GDP growth expectation for the borrower's country corresponds to an increase of 8.46 percentage points in the loan share, equivalent to approximately 0.75 standard deviations of the loan share and $75.35 million in loan amount. In contrast, global banks' short-term inflation expectations do not show a significant impact on their credit supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xiang & Ongena, Steven, 2025. "Global banks' macroeconomic expectations and credit supply," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2025, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:319911
    DOI: 10.18717/dpehpr-1e45
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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