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Selection and monetary non-neutrality in time-dependent pricing models

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  • Carlos Carvalho
  • Felipe Schwartzman

Abstract

Given the frequency of price changes, the real effects of a monetary shock are smaller if adjusting firms are disproportionately likely to be ones with prices set before the shock. This selection effect is important in a large class of sticky-price models with time-dependent price adjustment. We characterize conditions on the distribution of the duration of price spells associated with the real effects of monetary shocks, and provide a very general analytical characterization of the real effects of such shocks. We find that: 1) Selection is stronger and real effects are smaller if the hazard function of price adjustment is more strongly increasing; 2) Selection is weaker and real effects are larger if there is sectoral heterogeneity in price stickiness; 3) Selection is stronger and real effects are smaller if the durations of price spells are less variable. We also show that 4) If monetary shocks affect primarily the level of nominal aggregate demand, the mean and variance of price durations are sufficient statistics for the real effects of such shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Carvalho & Felipe Schwartzman, 2012. "Selection and monetary non-neutrality in time-dependent pricing models," Working Paper 12-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:12-09
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Juan Passadore, 2016. "Are State- and Time-Dependent Models Really Different?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, pages 379-457 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alvarez, Fernando & Le Bihan, Hervé & Lippi, Francesco, 2013. "Small and large price changes and the propagation of monetary shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Fernando E. Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Luigi Paciello, 2016. "Monetary Shocks in Models with Inattentive Producers," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 421-459.
    4. repec:eee:ecolet:v:163:y:2018:i:c:p:193-196 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Juan Passadore, 2016. "Are State and Time dependent models really different?," EIEF Working Papers Series 1610, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Jun 2016.
    6. Fernando Alvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2016. "The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in Sticky Price Models: A Sufficient Statistic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2817-2851, October.
    7. Taylor, J.B., 2016. "The Staying Power of Staggered Wage and Price Setting Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    8. Engin Kara, 2015. "The Selection Effect and the Inflation-Output Variability Trade-off," CESifo Working Paper Series 5664, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Isaac Baley & Julio A. Blanco, 2016. "Menu Costs, Uncertainty Cycles, and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks," Working Papers 918, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    10. Kara, Engin, 2015. "The reset inflation puzzle and the heterogeneity in price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 29-37.
    11. Fernando E. Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Juan Passadore, 2016. "Are State and Time Dependent Models Really Different?," NBER Working Papers 22361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. repec:sbe:breart:v:37:y:2017:i:2:a:57627 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Alvarez, Fernando & Lippi, Francesco & Paciello, Luigi, 2012. "Monetary Shocks in a Model with Inattentive Producers," CEPR Discussion Papers 9228, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Luigi Paciello, 2015. "Phillips curves with observation and menu costs," EIEF Working Papers Series 1508, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Jul 2015.

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    Keywords

    Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance);

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