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The Selection Effect and the Inflation-Output Variability Trade-off

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  • Engin Kara

Abstract

It has been shown that extending the Calvo model to account for the heterogeneity in price stickiness suggested by the micro-evidence significantly improves the performance of the model. In the new model, price-changing firms are chosen disproportionately from sectors with more flexible prices. In this paper, I show that this selection effect significantly affects policy conclusions that arise from the model. In the new model, the level and the variability of inflation is higher than in the Calvo model with no selection effect. Attempting to lower inflation’s variability results in a significant increase output’s variability, without changing inflation’s variability much.

Suggested Citation

  • Engin Kara, 2015. "The Selection Effect and the Inflation-Output Variability Trade-off," CESifo Working Paper Series 5664, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5664
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
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    6. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-266, January.
    8. Huw Dixon & Engin Kara, 2010. "Can We Explain Inflation Persistence in a Way that Is Consistent with the Microevidence on Nominal Rigidity?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 151-170, February.
    9. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-1286, September.
    10. Kara, Engin, 2015. "The reset inflation puzzle and the heterogeneity in price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 29-37.
    11. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    12. Carvalho Carlos, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-58, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; selection effect; variance trade-off; Multiple Calvo; Calvo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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