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The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes

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  • Zhuo Chen
  • Zhiguo He
  • Chun Liu

Abstract

China’s four-trillion-yuan stimulus package fueled by bank loans in 2009 has led to the rapid growth of shadow banking activities in China after 2012. The local governments in China financed the stimulus plan mainly through bank loans in 2009, and resorted to non-bank debt financing after 2012 given the mounting rollover pressure from bank debt coming due, a manifestation of the stimulus-loan-hangover effect. Cross-sectionally, provinces with abnormally greater bank loan growth in 2009 experienced more Municipal Corporate Bonds issuance during 2012-2015, as well as more shadow banking activities including Entrusted loans and Wealth Management Products. We highlight the market forces behind the regulation changes on local government debt post 2012, together with the expedited reform on interest rate liberalization during that period.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhuo Chen & Zhiguo He & Chun Liu, 2017. "The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes," NBER Working Papers 23598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23598
    Note: CF DEV EFG IFM POL
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2016. "Public Debt and Private Firm Funding: Evidence from Chinese Cities," IHEID Working Papers 10-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Aug 2016.
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    5. Chen, Kaiji & Ren, Jue & Zha, Tao, 2016. "What we learn from China's rising shadow banking: exploring the nexus of monetary tightening and banks' role in entrusted lending," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2017. "China's Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 608-613, May.
    2. Song, Zheng (Michael) & Xiong, Wei, 2018. "Risks in China’s financial system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Torsten Ehlers & Steven Kong & Feng Zhu, 2018. "Mapping shadow banking in China: structure and dynamics," BIS Working Papers 701, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Xiang Xu & Alice Siqi Han, 2018. "Will China Collapse: A Review, Assessment And Outlook," Economics Working Papers 18104, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    5. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ug Panizza, 2016. "Local Crowding Out in China," CSEF Working Papers 450, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 13 Nov 2017.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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