IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/23598.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes

Author

Listed:
  • Zhuo Chen
  • Zhiguo He
  • Chun Liu

Abstract

China’s four-trillion-yuan stimulus package fueled by bank loans in 2009 has led to the rapid growth of shadow banking activities after 2012. Local governments financed the stimulus through bank loans in 2009, and resorted to non-bank debt financing after 2012 given the rollover pressure from bank debt coming due, a manifestation of the stimulus-loan-hangover effect. Cross-sectionally, provinces with greater bank loan growth in 2009 experienced more Municipal Corporate Bonds issuance during 2012-2015, together with more shadow banking activities including Entrusted loans and Wealth Management Products. We highlight the market forces behind the regulation changes on local government debt post 2012.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhuo Chen & Zhiguo He & Chun Liu, 2017. "The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes," NBER Working Papers 23598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23598
    Note: CF DEV EFG IFM POL
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23598.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chandler, Alfred D., 1954. "Patterns of American Railroad Finance, 1830–50," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 248-263, September.
    2. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    3. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    4. Douglas W. Diamond & Zhiguo He, 2014. "A Theory of Debt Maturity: The Long and Short of Debt Overhang," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 719-762, April.
    5. Wei Jiang, 2017. "Have Instrumental Variables Brought Us Closer to the Truth," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 127-140.
    6. A. Piatt Andrew, 1908. "Substitutes for Cash in the Panic of 1907," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 22(4), pages 497-516.
    7. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.
    8. Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang & Mr. Steven A Barnett, 2014. "Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in China," IMF Working Papers 2014/004, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2019. "Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, May.
    10. Dupor, Bill & Mehkari, M. Saif, 2016. "The 2009 Recovery Act: Stimulus at the extensive and intensive labor margins," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-228.
    11. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel Wilson, 2013. "Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 89-142.
    12. Zhangkai Huang & Lixing Li & Guangrong Ma & Lixin Colin Xu, 2017. "Hayek, Local Information, and Commanding Heights: Decentralizing State-Owned Enterprises in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2455-2478, August.
    13. Chen Lin & Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung & Xiaofeng Zhao, 2016. "What do we learn from stock price reactions to China’s first announcement of anti-corruption reforms?," NBER Working Papers 22001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Yongheng Deng & Randall Morck & Jing Wu & Bernard Yeung, 2015. "China’s Pseudo-monetary Policy," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 55-93.
    15. Ghosh, Swati & Gonzalez del Mazo, Ines & İnci Ötker-Robe, 2012. "Chasing the Shadows: How Significant Is Shadow Banking in Emerging Markets?," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 88, pages 1-7, September.
    16. Bill Dupor, 2017. "So, Why Didn’t the 2009 Recovery Act Improve the Nation’s Highways and Bridges?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(2), pages 169-182.
    17. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
    18. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    19. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    20. Swati Ghosh & Ines Gonzalez del Mazo & ?nci Ötker-Robe, 2012. "Chasing the Shadows : How Significant is Shadow Banking in Emerging Markets?," World Bank Publications - Reports 17088, The World Bank Group.
    21. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2011. "Growing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 196-233, February.
    22. Emmanuel Farhi & Mikhail Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2009. "A Theory of Liquidity and Regulation of Financial Intermediation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 973-992.
    23. Torsten Ehlers & Steven Kong & Feng Zhu, 2018. "Mapping shadow banking in China: structure and dynamics," BIS Working Papers 701, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. W. Braddock Hickman, 1952. "Introduction to "Trends and Cycles in Corporate Bond Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Trends and Cycles in Corporate Bond Financing, pages 1-2, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Leigh, Andrew & Neill, Christine, 2011. "Can national infrastructure spending reduce local unemployment? Evidence from an Australian roads program," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 150-153.
    26. Marlene Amstad & Zhiguo He, 2019. "Chinese Bond Market and Interbank Market," NBER Working Papers 25549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Hong Ru, 2018. "Government Credit, a Double†Edged Sword: Evidence from the China Development Bank," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 275-316, February.
    28. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    29. Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2018. "The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3891-3936, December.
    30. Gorton, Gary & Pennacchi, George, 1990. "Financial Intermediaries and Liquidity Creation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-71, March.
    31. Brian Knight, 2002. "Endogenous Federal Grants and Crowd-out of State Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the Federal Highway Aid Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 71-92, March.
    32. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2016. "Public Debt and Private Firm Funding: Evidence from Chinese Cities," IHEID Working Papers 10-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Aug 2016.
    33. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    34. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Baskin, Jonathan Barron, 1988. "The Development of Corporate Financial Markets in Britain and the United States, 1600–1914: Overcoming Asymmetric Information," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 199-237, July.
    36. Keith Finlay & Leandro M. Magnusson, 2009. "Implementing weak-instrument robust tests for a general class of instrumental-variables models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(3), pages 398-421, September.
    37. Lin William Cong & Haoyu Gao & Jacopo Ponticelli & Xiaoguang Yang, 2019. "Credit Allocation Under Economic Stimulus: Evidence from China," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3412-3460.
    38. Liu, Laura Xiaolei & Shu, Haibing & Wei, K.C. John, 2017. "The impacts of political uncertainty on asset prices: Evidence from the Bo scandal in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 286-310.
    39. Wei Xiong, 2018. "The Mandarin Model of Growth," NBER Working Papers 25296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. White, Eugene Nelson, 1982. "The Political Economy of Banking Regulation, 1864–1933," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 33-40, March.
    41. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel Wilson, 2017. "Are State Governments Roadblocks to Federal Stimulus? Evidence on the Flypaper Effect of Highway Grants in the 2009 Recovery Act," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 253-292, May.
    42. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    43. Conley, Timothy G. & Dupor, Bill, 2013. "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: Solely a government jobs program?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 535-549.
    44. Hugh Rockoff, 2018. "It is Always the Shadow Banks: The Regulatory Status of the Banks that Failed and Ignited America’s Greatest Financial Panics," Studies in Economic History, in: Hugh Rockoff & Isao Suto (ed.), Coping with Financial Crises, chapter 0, pages 77-106, Springer.
    45. Moen, Jon & Tallman, Ellis W., 1992. "The Bank Panic of 1907: The Role of Trust Companies," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 611-630, September.
    46. Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2016. "What we learn from China's rising shadow banking: exploring the nexus of monetary tightening and banks' role in entrusted lending," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    47. Carola Frydman & Eric Hilt & Lily Y. Zhou, 2015. "Economic Effects of Runs on Early "Shadow Banks": Trust Companies and the Impact of the Panic of 1907," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(4), pages 902-940.
    48. Chandler, Alfred D., 1965. "The Railroads: Pioneers in Modern Corporate Management," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 16-40, April.
    49. W. Braddock Hickman, 1952. "Appendix to "Trends and Cycles in Corporate Bond Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Trends and Cycles in Corporate Bond Financing, pages 31-37, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Neal, Larry, 1971. "Trust Companies and Financial Innovation, 1897–1914," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 35-51, April.
    51. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Michael Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of a Fiscal Expansion," NBER Working Papers 22801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Douglas W. Diamond, 1991. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 709-737.
    53. Kroeber, Arthur R., 2016. "China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190239039.
    54. Haoyu Gao & Hong Ru & Robert Townsend & Xiaoguang Yang, 2019. "Rise of Bank Competition: Evidence from Banking Deregulation in China," NBER Working Papers 25795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. W. Braddock Hickman, 1952. "Trends and Cycles in Corporate Bond Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hick52-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    2. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2018. "The Financing of Local Government in the People’s Republic of China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes," ADBI Working Papers 800, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2018. "A Review of China’s Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 13269, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Kaiji Chen & Haoyu Gao & Patrick Higgins & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2023. "Monetary Stimulus amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan‐Level Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 1147-1204, April.
    5. Guonan Ma & Jinzhao Chen, 2019. "The Role of Internally Financed Capex in Rising Chinese Corporate Debts," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 413-442, September.
    6. Wang, He & Yao, Yang & Zhou, Yue, 2022. "Markets price politicians: Evidence from China’s municipal bond markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Zhu, Xiaodong, 2021. "The varying shadow of China's banking system," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 135-146.
    8. Francesco D'Acunto & Michael Weber & Jin Xie & Michael Weber, 2019. "Punish One, Teach A Hundred: The Sobering Effect of Punishment on the Unpunished," CESifo Working Paper Series 7512, CESifo.
    9. Zhang, Min & Zhang, Yahong, 2022. "Monetary stimulus policy in China: The bank credit channel," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Gao, Haoyu & Ru, Hong & Tang, Dragon Yongjun, 2021. "Subnational debt of China: The politics-finance nexus," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 881-895.
    11. Jingzhu Chen & Yuemei Ji, 2022. "Is Finance Good for Growth? New Evidence from China," CESifo Working Paper Series 9882, CESifo.
    12. Wang, Yabin & Wu, Sharon Xiaohui, 2023. "Local guarantees and SOE bond pricing in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Min, Feng & Wen, Fenghua & Wang, Xiong, 2022. "Measuring the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on domestic investment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 395-412.
    14. Song, Zheng (Michael) & Xiong, Wei, 2018. "Risks in China’s financial system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    15. Chen, Sophia & Ratnovski, Lev & Tsai, Pi-Han, 2021. "Credit and fiscal multipliers in China: Evidence from a political economy based estimation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    16. Yi Huang & Ugo Panizza & Richard Portes, 2018. "Corporate Foreign Bond Issuance and Interfirm Loans in China," NBER Working Papers 24513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Qu, Xi & Xu, Zhiwei & Yu, Jinxiang & Zhu, Jun, 2023. "Understanding local government debt in China: A regional competition perspective," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Cai, Yue, 2021. "Expansionary monetary policy and credit allocation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Wang, Jiaxin & Huang, Xiang & Gu, Qiankun & Song, Zilong & Sun, Ruiyi, 2023. "How does fintech affect bank risk? A perspective based on financialized transfer of government implicit debt risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    21. Du, Julan & Li, Chang & Wang, Yongqin, 2023. "Shadow banking of non-financial firms: Arbitrage between formal and informal credit markets in China," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23598. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.